Masahiro Wakasugi

AI-driven memory demand is so strong that the industry consensus points to a shortage in 2027 and potentially 2028 unless capex is accelerated now. Micron's strong earnings and 85% gross margin signal high profitability, and SK Hynix is expected to post similar strong results. Samsung and SK Hynix must expand capacity to capture demand, making the memory segment very attractive.

1. FACT: Analysts note that Nvidia's shift from AI training to AI inference will drastically increase demand not just for HBM, but for conventional DRAM, NAND flash, and advanced packaging (like hybrid copper bonding). 2. BRIDGE: The entire Asian semiconductor supply chain is being pulled higher by Nvidia's $1T forecast. While Samsung and SK Hynix are direct memory beneficiaries, TSMC is the foundational foundry manufacturing these advanced inference chips and packaging solutions. 3. VERDICT: LONG. TSMC remains the ultimate tollbooth for the exploding AI inference and advanced packaging market. 4. KEY RISK: Geopolitical escalation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cyclical downturn in non-AI semiconductor demand (smartphones/PCs).

Samsung's strong Q4 is likely to be matched by SK Hynix and other memory makers because AI-driven memory demand is a structural increase, especially as workloads shift from training to inference. The memory upcycle should benefit the whole memory sector, including SK Hynix.