Currie: Risks to Energy Supply Chains Never Been Higher

Currie explicitly states, "I would not fade this current spike" and argues that the "security premium in energy prices... is going to be a structural repricing." He notes that outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the world is capacity constrained. Most traders treat geopolitical spikes as selling opportunities (fading the move). Currie argues the opposite: because the conflict involves asymmetric proxy attacks on unguarded infrastructure (Iraq, Mozambique) and supply chains are bifurcated, the risk premium is sticky. A "structural repricing" means the floor for oil is moving higher, benefiting crude futures and energy equities. Long exposure to crude oil spot prices and producers. A rapid de-escalation of tensions or a significant demand collapse in China (though Currie argues China will hoard regardless of demand).

Currie says, "If you're China, you're India, you're going to start to hoard oil and not only oil, but all commodities... The hoarding situation is going to become more extreme." The bifurcation of the world into two supply blocs (US vs. China) forces large importers to build massive strategic reserves. This creates a source of price-insensitive demand for hard assets, putting a floor under industrial metals and energy regardless of immediate economic consumption data. Long broad commodities and real assets. A strengthening USD which typically creates headwinds for commodities, or global recession.