Trump Signs Iran MoU, Warsh Rocks Bond Market in Debut | The Opening Trade 6/18/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 18, 2026 at 11:25  |  1:36:10  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Jeremy Stretch — Editor, Financial Times
Patrick Armstrong — CEO, Plume Wealth
Guy Johnson — Anchor, Bloomberg
Anna Edwards — Anchor, Bloomberg TV (London)
Kelly Pickering — Chief Economist, Peel Hunt

Summary

The show covers the US-Iran MoU signing that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices lower, Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut as Fed chair that removed forward guidance and pulled forward rate-hike expectations, and the tech trade's resilience with Korean equities hitting all-time highs. Multiple guests provided trade ideas around oil, equities, currencies, gold miners, energy stocks and a relative AI trade favoring chipmakers over hyperscalers.

  • Trump signs interim Iran deal, Strait of Hormuz set to reopen, oil prices fall sharply.
  • Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference is hawkish; forward guidance dropped, half the committee sees a 2025 rate hike.
  • Short-end Treasury yields jump, dollar strengthens, equities initially sell off but bounce.
  • Asian tech (Kospi) reaches new all-time high; AI chip stocks remain strong.
  • Guests discuss short oil ideas, long US equities on Fed credibility, and buying EUR/USD on dips.
  • Patrick Armstrong positions for gold miners, energy stocks, avoids Magnificent Seven and prefers Micron, Samsung, Nvidia as AI capex beneficiaries.
  • Europe debates AI sovereignty after US restricts Anthropic model access; defense spending also in focus.
  • UK wage data comes in hot ahead of Bank of England rate decision.
Ideas
Jeremy Stretch Editor, Financial Times 29:44
Buy euro on dip to 1.14
A durable Iran deal and lower oil prices will reduce tail risks for the eurozone, taking away growth-destructive rate hike pricing. The euro could dip to 1.14 but that would provide a better level to buy for an eventual recovery.
EUR/USD MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 38:20
Short oil near-term with upside risk
Oil prices have further near-term downside because President Trump is determined to get the deal through and lower oil prices ahead of the midterms, even as his team is divided. However, the risk of a sharp upside shock remains if the fragile deal breaks.
BNO MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 39:34
Long US stocks on Fed credibility
Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut restores credibility to the central bank. Higher yields driven by a strong economy are not very negative for stocks, and this credibility is ultimately good for equity markets.
SPY MED
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 54:00
Avoid Magnificent Seven on AI spending
The hyperscalers (Magnificent Seven) are spending $1 trillion on AI data centers, but if all of them win, none will have pricing power. The market is pricing them all as winners, which is a recipe for disappointment. He is underweight the group.
MAGS HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 54:30
Long Micron, Samsung, Nvidia on AI capex
The best way to play AI capex is to own the chipmakers receiving the hyperscalers' spending. Micron, Samsung and Nvidia are benefiting from a structural, not cyclical, investment wave. They are not expensive on forward earnings and have strong momentum.
MU KS NVDA HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 56:17
Long gold miners on cheap cash flow
Gold miners produce enormous free cash flow at current gold prices, with many having cash costs between $1,600 and $1,900. Even if gold stays flat, the miners can still rally significantly from here.
GDX HIGH
Patrick Armstrong CEO, Plume Wealth 57:00
Long energy stocks on supply risk
Energy stocks are overweight because, despite the near-term path of least resistance for oil being lower, inventories have been heavily drawn down and a risk premium should still exist. If supply disruptions re-emerge, oil and energy stocks have asymmetric upside.
XLE MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 18, 2026, features Jeremy Stretch, Mark Cudmore, Patrick Armstrong discussing EUR/USD, BNO, SPY, MAGS, MU, KS, NVDA, GDX, XLE. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeremy Stretch, Mark Cudmore, Patrick Armstrong  · Tickers: EUR/USD, BNO, SPY, MAGS, MU, KS, NVDA, GDX, XLE