Stock Futures Rise, Oil Falls on US-Iran Deal; Warsh Rocks Bond Market | Bloomberg Brief 6/18/2026

Summary

US stock futures rebound as an interim Iran peace deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil sharply lower. Hawkish comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh trigger a jump in front-end Treasury yields and a bear flattening. Guests discuss the implications for Fed policy and highlight AI's potential to transform industrial engineering, while markets digest major sector divergences from China to currencies.

• US-Iran interim deal takes effect, three Saudi supertankers cross Strait of Hormuz, oil slumps 11%
• Fed holds rates but reveals a deeply split committee with nine members leaning toward hikes; Chair Warsh scraps forward guidance and prioritizes price stability
• Two-year yield surges 13 bps, bear flattening pushes 2s10s spread to 27 bps, markets price a rate hike as soon as next month
• China's MSCI China nears a bear market dragged by consumer platforms, while the STAR 50 tech startup gauge flirts with record highs on AI momentum
• Swiss National Bank holds rate at zero and signals heightened readiness to intervene against Swiss franc strength
• Malaysian ringgit hits session low under double pressure from hawkish Fed and falling oil prices
• Yen remains trapped near 160-162 with intervention risk seen if USD/JPY approaches 161.95
• Smith & Wesson jumps on upbeat demand outlook; Intel surges on confirmed Apple chip manufacturing deal