MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden: Is The War Really Over and What’s Next For Markets?

Summary

Lyn Alden discusses the winding down of the Hormuz crisis, the Fed’s hawkish pause under Chair Warsh, persistent US fiscal deficits, and the AI trade’s sustainability. She expects crude oil to trend higher, remains long energy equities, and highlights deep value in overlooked bank core software providers while watching semiconductors for a pullback. Patrick Ceresna’s trade of the week adds a long natural gas call to play the AI‑driven power bottleneck.

• Strait of Hormuz crisis is de‑escalating but details remain unresolved and could cause oil volatility.
• Fed under Warsh is taking a hawkish but vague tone; balance sheet solutions will be liquidity‑neutral.
• Persistent large fiscal deficits are a powerful pro‑asset force, fueling a K‑shaped economy and populism.
• Lyn Alden stays long energy stocks and sees crude oil trending higher as reserves need replenishment.
• AI capex cycle still has legs, but valuations are stretched; she would buy chip stocks on a pullback.
• Bank core software providers trading at ~6x earnings offer a deep‑value opportunity as bearish AI narratives overcorrect.
• Patrick Ceresna recommends long natural gas via UNL or December 2026 futures as AI energy demands rise.
• The US dollar broke out above a 15‑month range, but Lyn expects it to stay in a choppy band; gold remains in a corrective phase.