MacroVoices #538 Lyn Alden: Is The War Really Over and What’s Next For Markets?

Summary

Lyn Alden returns to discuss the end of the Hormuz crisis, the outlook for Fed policy under new leadership, persistent US fiscal deficits, and the investment implications of the AI capex cycle and its mounting energy demands. She maintains long energy positions, sees the AI cycle as continuing but waits for pullbacks in semiconductors, and highlights value in beaten-down bank core software stocks. Patrick Ceresna’s trade of the week is long natural gas to capture AI-driven power demand.

• Hormuz crisis winding down but risks remain; crude oil sold off to pre-crisis levels.
• Fed under Worsh is hawkish for now but inflation and energy path will determine rate cuts.
• US fiscal deficits likely to stay high, supporting asset prices but worsening a K-shaped economy.
• Stable coin growth adds incremental Treasury demand but not a magic fix for deficits.
• AI capex cycle still has legs, but Lyn is cautious on valuations and waits for chip stock pullbacks.
• Bank core software providers trade at ~6x earnings and present a deep value watchlist opportunity.
• Patrick Ceresna recommends long natural gas via UNL or futures options as a bridge fuel for AI power needs.
• Dollar breakout, oil oversold, and gold in a corrective phase are key macro technicals.