German Far Right Surges in Vote, Iran & US Trade Tanker Attacks | The Opening Trade 9/7/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 07, 2026 at 09:40  |  1:37:26  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer
Anthony DiPaola — Reporter, Bloomberg (Energy)
Elliot Hentov — Head of Macro Policy Research, State Street Global Advisors
Michel Vernier — Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Barclays Private Bank
Bilal Hafeez — Columnist, The News International
Adam Linton — Markets Live Strategist, Bloomberg
Winnie Wu — Head of A-PAC Equity Strategy, BofA Global Research
Oliver Crook — Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

The show covers a light-volume European open with US markets closed for Labor Day. Asia tech and chip stocks rallied on OpenAI's GPT-6 release, while European equities traded mixed. German AfD's Saxony-Anhalt election win, US-Iran tanker strikes, China's bank recapitalization, and upcoming Fed/ECB/CPI events dominate the macro narrative.

  • Asia chip and AI names rallied strongly after OpenAI GPT-6, led by Korea and Japan.
  • SoftBank rose almost 10% on direct OpenAI exposure.
  • US-Iran tanker strikes pushed Brent crude near $100; Goldman Sachs flagged $120 risk if escalation continues.
  • Gulf LNG disruption raised European natural gas supply concerns ahead of winter.
  • Germany's AfD won Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8%, increasing political pressure on Chancellor Merz and European sovereign risk.
  • China injected $45 billion into large banks via special bonds while credit demand remained weak.
  • Novartis fell on a failed heart-disease drug trial, while AstraZeneca gained after FDA cancer-drug approval.
  • The week ahead focuses on the ECB, US CPI/PPI, and Treasury buyback announcements.
Ideas
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 2:43
GPT-6 reignites AI compute/memory trade.
OpenAI's GPT-6 can use software like a human, reigniting the case for computer processing power and memory after a lull; Korea is the cleaner positioning and Japan is also participating in the rally.
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 3:21
SoftBank rallies on direct OpenAI stake.
SoftBank is up nearly 10% because it is directly correlated to its OpenAI stake, making it a specific Asia AI beneficiary.
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 4:50
China bank recap supports share-price gains.
China is injecting about $45 billion into its largest banks through special bonds; while credit demand remains weak, the street is leaning into recapitalization and expects more easing and share-price increases in the sector.
Strait escalation pushes Brent higher.
US-Iran tit-for-tat tanker strikes and escalation in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing Brent toward $100; Goldman Sachs warns Brent could reach $120 if the escalation continues.
Elliot Hentov Head of Macro Policy Research, State Street Global Advisors 21:27
AI demand outpaces constrained supply.
AI demand is picking up and accelerating based on OpenAI and Anthropic reports, while supply remains constrained; therefore the AI trade should continue flourishing, with the key risk being demand fragility or a sudden China-driven supply flood.
Elliot Hentov Head of Macro Policy Research, State Street Global Advisors 24:07
European long-end yields have upside risk.
European political risks, including the German state election result and upcoming elections, make him worried that long-term European bond yields have room to move higher.
Michel Vernier Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Barclays Private Bank 36:01
France is new Italy for bonds.
France has become the new Italy with yields and spreads at similar levels; French political tensions will continue and the bond market will have no ECB support, making French government bonds vulnerable.
Michel Vernier Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Barclays Private Bank 37:37
Term premium room to rise further.
US term premium is only around 17 basis points versus a long-term average near 105 basis points, so there is much more room for term premium and long-end rate volatility to rise, especially with deficits, inflation and political risk.
Adam Linton Markets Live Strategist, Bloomberg 43:14
Yen supported; watch USDJPY 155.
The yen is being supported by talk of Japanese intervention and repatriation flows, but the BOJ is not a reliable channel for further gains; the setup is to watch whether USD/JPY pitches toward 155 and below.
EssilorLuxottica restructuring watch.
EssilorLuxottica is streamlining operations and senior management while increasing focus on smart glasses and North America; the stock has underperformed luxury peers, putting this restructuring into investor focus.
Novartis falls on failed heart drug.
Novartis's heart disease drug failed a late-stage trial, removing a potential breakthrough and driving the stock lower after it had been high earlier in the week.
AstraZeneca wins FDA cancer-drug approval.
AstraZeneca is outperforming Novartis and the broader healthcare space after its breast cancer pill received accelerated FDA approval.
Bilal Hafeez Columnist, The News International 54:59
Ten-year Treasury could reach 5%.
The long end is the main story; if the Fed does not hike, that could put more upward pressure on long-term yields, with the 10-year Treasury possibly reaching 5% as real yields rise on strong growth.
Nordex leveraged to AI energy demand.
Nordex tends to trade with the AI theme because of its exposure to the energy side of AI demand, and it also has an upgrade; it is outperforming as part of the AI-winners basket.
Anthony DiPaola Reporter, Bloomberg (Energy) 68:23
European gas faces winter supply risk.
Gulf LNG exports have been running at much lower levels because fewer owners are willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz; Europe needs to refill storage before winter, and any refill shortfall will pressure gas prices higher.
Winnie Wu Head of A-PAC Equity Strategy, BofA Global Research 79:05
Selective China tech moats still attractive.
China tech is making localization progress despite export controls and can launch competitive AI models; companies with real entry barriers, heavy capital requirements or special licenses can grow into valuations over three years, while margin-eroding commodity-like areas such as robotics are riskier.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 07, 2026, features Anthony Stevens, Abeer, Elliot Hentov, Michel Vernier, Adam Linton, Olivia, Bilal Hafeez, Anthony DiPaola, Winnie Wu discussing EWY, N225, SFTBY, KBA, BNO, SMH, IGOV, OAT, TLT, USD/JPY, EssilorLuxottica, NVS, AZN, IEF, Nordex, UNG, China technology equities. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anthony Stevens, Abeer, Elliot Hentov, Michel Vernier, Adam Linton, Olivia, Bilal Hafeez, Anthony DiPaola, Winnie Wu  · Tickers: EWY, N225, SFTBY, KBA, BNO, SMH, IGOV, OAT, TLT, USD/JPY, EssilorLuxottica, NVS, AZN, IEF, Nordex, UNG, China technology equities