Sell-Off Piled Above KOSPI 2,700... Why It Gets Stronger Again When the Fed Turns Around | Hong Seon-ae, Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities Asset Strategy Team Leader

Summary

Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities asset strategy team leader, discusses the post-selloff macro setup for KOSPI, currencies, rates, and AI-related equities. He views the won's rapid appreciation as directionally correct but too fast, expects the Fed to stay hawkish before a possible October turn, and sees persistent yen weakness despite BOJ noise. He favors US S&P 500, limited rebounds in Korean semis, gold on dips, and short-duration bonds while avoiding long-term Treasuries.

• USD/KRW broke a seven-year support and may target 1,320 before pausing.
• Rapid won strength is squeezing Korean exporter earnings estimates.
• The Fed is expected to remain hawkish near term with a possible attitude shift after October.
• BOJ-driven yen spikes should not be chased because the weak-yen trend remains intact.
• Long-term yields may rise further with US 10Y at 5% possible; short-term bonds are preferred.
• KOSPI faces overhead supply near 2,700, while Korean semis may rebound but with limited upside.
• Gold is favored on price pullbacks.