Bilal Hafeez 2.2 3 ideas

The US dollar will weaken against the Chinese yuan, heading towards 6.40, because China's economy has held up well during the war, war risks are declining, and China's trade flows and exports remain strong, making it the manufacturing powerhouse of the world.

South Korean stocks (KOSPI) crashed 12% in two days. Korea is the world's 8th biggest crude consumer. Korea is a "double loser" here: highly dependent on imported Middle East oil (margin compression) and suffering from a massive unwind of leveraged retail positions. Even if it bounces, the structural energy disadvantage remains. Avoid or Short South Korea (EWY). Oversold bounce; government intervention to stabilize markets (which was mentioned as a possibility).

Gold has been volatile, but the macro backdrop resembles the 1970s (supply shocks, war, deficits). Investors are currently unwinding positions, causing temporary dips. However, if the conflict extends (which Iran implies it will), the combination of inflation (oil shock) and safe-haven demand will drive Gold significantly higher, repeating the 1970s bull run. Long Gold (GLD). Mark Cudmore (counter-view) argues the geopolitical trade is already "priced in" and the Dollar will strengthen, capping Gold.