Name: Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?
Uploaded: 2025-04-17T13:00:26+00:00
Duration: 608 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg debate Bitcoin versus gold in a multipolar world. Avi highlights the IBIT/SPY ratio as a potential Bitcoin breakout signal, argues Bitcoin was resilient during the equity selloff, and prefers Bitcoin's long-term risk-reward to gold. Jonah is near-term bullish on gold and gold miners, citing higher probability of gains and portfolio diversification benefits. They also discuss how adding gold can improve a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio's Sharpe profile.

Avi watches the IBIT/SPY ratio for a Bitcoin upside decorrelation signal.
Avi argues Bitcoin held up better than equities and has a bullish long-term story.
Avi sees PBoC gold buying and China's Treasury sales supporting gold.
Jonah is very bullish on gold and gold miners for the next 6-12 months.
Jonah sees gold rising in more scenarios than Bitcoin and likes it as a portfolio diversifier.
Both discuss adding gold to a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio to improve Sharpe.
The conversation compares Bitcoin and gold as reserve assets in a multipolar world.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:32

IBIT/SPY breakout signals Bitcoin upside.

Avi favors watching the IBIT/SPY ratio instead of BTC/SPY because both IBIT and SPY trade on New York hours with the same open and close. The ratio is in a solid uptrend at about 0.09; if it approaches or breaks its cycle high near 0.10, he thinks it will signal to market participants that Bitcoin is decorrelating to the upside, triggering real capital flows into crypto and potentially mania-like moves.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 1:34

China buying gold supports higher prices.

Gold is being driven by a search for a new reserve currency in a multipolar world where investors cannot rely on the US hegemon for stable currency. The People's Bank of China has added to gold reserves for five consecutive months, and as China sells US Treasuries amid its ugly divorce with the US, it has few alternatives and is stashing physical and financial gold on its balance sheet. Avi thinks this will continue and China alone can push gold much higher, even though he is not personally heavily invested in gold.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 2:03

Bitcoin resilient; long-term bullish story intact.

Bitcoin has been resilient relative to equities during a major equity collapse. NASDAQ fell about 25% peak-to-trough, while Bitcoin fell only about 30-32%, and excluding the false SBR-driven pump to 109, it fell only about 23% from 96 to 74. With NASDAQ returning to January 2024 levels while Bitcoin remained much higher than April 2024 levels, Avi sees this as evidence of longer-term allocation into Bitcoin and part of an extremely bullish long-term story.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 8:29

Gold and miners favored near-term.

For the next 6-12 months, Jonah is very bullish on gold and gold miners. He sees gold rising in about 80% of scenarios versus Bitcoin in about 60%, and he likes gold as a portfolio diversifier because it is decorrelated from Bitcoin: gold up 10% while Bitcoin down 25% allows rebalancing into more Bitcoin. Adding gold improves portfolio Sharpe and lets investors tolerate larger Bitcoin drawdowns for its higher upside. He also notes options on gold can be used for juiced returns, and he regrets having sold gold to buy BTC.

Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?

Summary

Ideas

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