Ideas
Stocks face lower lows; sell rallies.
The S&P 500 weekly chart has shifted into a bearish long-term environment and stage-four decline after a major top. The recent rebound is a dead-cat bounce or bear-market rally, with institutions selling into strength and rallies being sold. He expects the market to roll over and make multi-leg lower lows, with potential S&P pullbacks of roughly 25-30% from the highs, possibly 34-55% in an extreme, and a near-term next leg down of about 16%. He says investors should not hold stocks and should short or sell rallies once resistance rolls over.
MAGS breakdown signals broader market plunge.
The MAGS ETF, the Magnificent 7 basket, has broken down from a bullish setup and is underperforming. The chart shows a head-and-shoulders topping pattern with a huge neckline; a break below that neckline would trigger a huge plummet, and wherever the Magnificent 7 go, the broader market follows. He views MAGS as a powerful tool to follow for the market's direction.
Buy inverse ETFs as market falls.
In this bear-market regime, he does not want to play the bounce; he wants to wait for the rally to hit resistance and roll over, then short-sell or buy an inverse ETF on the market. Inverse ETFs go up as the market falls and may be one of the few temporary profitable plays while most assets decline. He later repeats that an inverse ETF trade could unfold as the next leg down develops.
US home prices to drop 15-20%.
US real estate looks weak and vulnerable. He expects home prices to fall another 15-20% on average because Canadian snowbirds are selling Arizona and Florida homes, surplus inventory is rising, economic uncertainty is spooking buyers, and Fed rate cuts will not rescue the market while buyers are scared. He says it is not yet a buyer's market; wait for lower prices and abundant supply.
Precious metals sell off in panic.
In a severe equity correction or recession, precious metals can also be hit because panicked investors liquidate even their best positions to raise cash. He notes gold fell about 8% during the recent equity panic and expects precious metals to sell off with most assets during the broader decline, even though they are currently on fire.
Dollar at support; next weeks critical.
DXY is under pressure after a news- and tariff-driven slide and is now at major support. He notes that everyone is bearish on the dollar, which can be a contrarian reversal sign, and the US remains resilient with a long-term monthly uptrend still intact. But if the dollar only trades sideways like a bear flag, it could point to another huge collapse; the next few weeks are critical.
Hold cash in BIL ETF.
He moved his portfolio to cash about a month and a half ago after false signals and a market breakdown. He is sitting in the BIL ETF, collecting monthly interest and dividend payments while the market shakes out. With mixed technical signals and no clear trade, cash has been a good play and he is on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity.
Gold overbought; wait for pullback.
Gold is still overbought after hitting long-term Fibonacci targets around $2,800 and $3,275, and is now in a blowoff and crowded phase. It is the safe-haven play while stocks fall, and he owns physical gold long term, but he does not want to buy a screaming rally. He prefers to wait for a sideways consolidation or pullback before adding.
Bitcoin trend down; target $72k.
Bitcoin has broken down from a double top and has a series of bear flags, lower highs, and lower lows, so the trend is down and it is not something to buy. If stocks bounce, Bitcoin may bounce toward $90,000-$94,000 resistance, but his next downside target is about $72,000, which he views as more likely.
This The David Lin Report video, published April 15, 2025,
features Chris Vermeulen
discussing QQQ, SPY, MAGS, INVERSE ETFs, US Real Estate, GLTR, DXY, BIL, GLD, BTC.
9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chris Vermeulen
· Tickers:
QQQ,
SPY,
MAGS,
INVERSE ETFs,
US Real Estate,
GLTR,
DXY,
BIL,
GLD,
BTC
