Bitcoin Is About To Rebound To $180k: VanEck's Matthew Sigel On Next Moves
Speakers
Matthew Sigel
— Head of Digital Asset Research, VanEck
Summary
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, discusses his Bitcoin outlook, including a $180k 2025 target, $450k by 2027-2028, and a long-term $3M scenario if Bitcoin becomes a global trade medium. He remains selectively bullish on Ethereum and crypto equities, prefers non-pure-play enablers over leveraged Bitcoin miners, and sees altcoins as high-risk but improving. He also outlines a macro view of a Q1 air pocket followed by a better second half for equities, with a portfolio allocation favoring stocks and Bitcoin.
- Matthew Sigel forecasts Bitcoin at $180k in 2025, $450k by 2027-2028, and $3M by 2050 under adoption scenarios.
- He expects macro/liquidity easing and a positive second half to drive Bitcoin, with a current drawdown-like period before the rally.
- He is long-term bullish Ethereum but notes smaller position sizes and L2 revenue-sharing concerns.
- He prefers crypto-exposed traditional enablers, citing Robinhood, over pure-play Bitcoin miners.
- He sees altcoins in a bear market but thinks risk-reward is more bullish after large drawdowns and potential deregulation.
- He expects US equities to rebound after a tariff-driven Q1 air pocket, with a better second half and less US tech dominance.
- For a young investor, he suggests 85-90% stocks and 10-15% Bitcoin/digital assets, with Bitcoin about three-quarters of the crypto sleeve.
- He flags risks including froth without new Bitcoin all-time highs and a reacceleration in inflation.
Ideas
Bitcoin can reach $180k in 2025.
Bitcoin's short-term path is driven by macro, liquidity, and technicals. Assuming it gets through this period of macro uncertainty, interest rates come down, the Fed gets easier, and the second half is positive, he expects Bitcoin to reach $180,000 per coin in 2025. This is based on shrinking Bitcoin cycles: the previous smallest cycle was 20x trough-to-peak, and a 10x return this cycle would imply $180k. He sees the current period as a drawdown/retracement and would reconsider the four-year cycle if 2025 is a down year.
Altcoin risk-reward is now more bullish.
Altcoins are currently in a bear market, underperforming because many are speculative, have oversupply, lack a transmission mechanism from stablecoin AUM to token-holder fees, and face meme-coin liquidity drain. But he is optimistic that deregulation, altcoin ETFs, staking permission, and in-kind ETF creation/redemption will bring broker-dealers into crypto and revive real use cases; with many tokens down 50-60%, risk-reward is more bullish than bearish.
Lower-inflation altcoins could outperform.
Within altcoins, he thinks coins with lower inflation rates could see good performance once ETFs come to market, staking is permitted, and in-kind ETF creation/redemption forces broker-dealers to touch crypto directly and hold working capital.
Prefer crypto enablers over pure-play miners.
He is doing more work in crypto equities because the equity universe does not have the same token inflation as 2024 altcoins. The supply of digital-asset-geared equities is only about $200 billion, with limited IPO supply, so profitable companies may have valuation support. He prefers companies with small but growing digital-asset exposure—traditional enablers moving from zero to one—because that can re-rate multiples without adding as much volatility as pure plays. Pure-play Bitcoin miners that borrow to add Bitcoin are extremely volatile and often do not get high earnings multiples, so he is broadening the investment universe away from the ~20 pure plays to ~100 companies doing something with digital assets.
Prefer crypto enablers over pure-play miners.
He is doing more work in crypto equities because the equity universe does not have the same token inflation as 2024 altcoins. The supply of digital-asset-geared equities is only about $200 billion, with limited IPO supply, so profitable companies may have valuation support. He prefers companies with small but growing digital-asset exposure—traditional enablers moving from zero to one—because that can re-rate multiples without adding as much volatility as pure plays. Pure-play Bitcoin miners that borrow to add Bitcoin are extremely volatile and often do not get high earnings multiples, so he is broadening the investment universe away from the ~20 pure plays to ~100 companies doing something with digital assets.
Robinhood benefits from growing crypto exposure.
Robinhood is a good example of a non-pure-play crypto equity: its crypto exposure went from de minimis a couple years ago to almost 30% of the business, and it has used digital-asset innovation to capture other customers and support its multiple. Such zero-to-one crypto adoption can move the needle without introducing as much volatility as pure-play miners.
US equities should rebound in second half.
He is still pretty bullish on equities. Tariff uncertainty pulled forward Q4 activity and created a Q1 GDP air pocket, causing GDP and earnings estimates to fall and peak-fear sentiment. As tariff certainty improves, he expects a Q2 rebound, views tariffs as a one-time rather than persistent hit, and expects deregulation and tax cuts to support a better second half, with more even equity performance rather than US tech dominating.
Ethereum remains bullish long term.
He remains bullish on Ethereum long term despite recent underperformance and the criticism that Ethereum has been too generous to L2s and not capturing enough revenue. He expects governance and the Ethereum Foundation to move toward a more Ethereum-aligned L2 ecosystem where ETH is the unit of account and used for gas, which could reinvigorate the token price. He has smaller position sizes than before and wants Ethereum leaders to be more vocal about the token.
Allocate mostly stocks and Bitcoin.
For a 30-year-old with $100k on the sidelines, he would put 85-90% into stocks, index funds, or high-conviction equities, and 10-15% into Bitcoin and digital assets, with Bitcoin likely about three-quarters of that crypto allocation. Because the assets are volatile, he would spread purchases daily or weekly rather than trying to pick a bottom with one big trade.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published April 14, 2025, features Matthew Sigel discussing BTC, ALTCOINS, Lower-inflation altcoins, Crypto-exposed traditional enablers, WGMI, HOOD, SPY, ETH, BITO. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Matthew Sigel · Tickers: BTC, ALTCOINS, Lower-inflation altcoins, Crypto-exposed traditional enablers, WGMI, HOOD, SPY, ETH, BITO