China Controls 80% of Batteries: Can North America Catch Up?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 28, 2025 at 23:51  |  31:15  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
John Passalacqua — CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp.
David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

John Passalacqua, CEO of First Phosphate Corp., explains how lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are becoming the dominant battery chemistry, especially for energy storage and grid applications. He argues that China's control of LFP cell production creates a critical supply-chain vulnerability for North America and Tesla. The interview details First Phosphate's Quebec igneous phosphate project, its economics, timeline, and its goal of localizing the North American LFP supply chain.

  • LFP batteries now account for 60-80% of all batteries and nearly 100% of energy storage.
  • Energy storage demand is driven by AI data centers, grid needs, and residential/commercial battery systems.
  • China controls LFP cell production, prompting North American localization efforts.
  • First Phosphate is developing an igneous phosphate mine in Saguenay, Quebec.
  • The project has 200Mt inferred and 50Mt indicated resources, enough for 350 GWh of LFP batteries over 23 years.
  • Economics include $2.1B NPV, 37.1% IRR, 2.9-year payback, and ~$500M capex.
  • Feasibility is targeted for end-2026, permitting early 2027, and production by 2029.
  • Management owns ~25% and the stock trades at ~4% of NPV.
Ideas
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 2:17
LFP batteries are taking dominant battery share
LFP batteries are becoming the dominant battery chemistry, accounting for 60-80% of all batteries and almost 100% of energy storage, with growth driven by EV adoption, grid storage, AI data centers, and advantages in cost, safety, and mineral availability versus NMC. Global battery demand is projected to grow ninefold by 2035, and LFP's share could reach 40-50% or more, especially if nickel and cobalt supply pressures persist.
LFP battery supply chain HIGH
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 2:33
Energy storage demand drives LFP growth
Stationary energy storage is a massive and growing demand driver for LFP batteries. Commercial and residential battery walls, utility-scale grid storage to integrate intermittent solar and wind, and AI data centers requiring power regulation and backup are all moving to LFP. The California grid already relies on these batteries, and energy storage is almost 100% LFP.
ICLN HIGH
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 8:15
Phosphoric acid shortage supports phosphate prices
The LFP battery boom is constrained by purified phosphoric acid, which is in short supply. North America lacks enough phosphate even for fertilizer, and sedimentary phosphate used for fertilizer cannot meet the purity required for LFP batteries. Igneous phosphate from Quebec can be converted directly into battery-grade phosphoric acid, and the speaker expects real price spikes in purified phosphoric acid as demand grows.
Purified phosphoric acid Igneous phosphate HIGH
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 10:03
Tesla vulnerable to Chinese LFP supply
Tesla's increasing use of LFP batteries in vehicles and all of its stationary energy storage systems creates a critical vulnerability because LFP cells are predominantly made in China. Tesla's stationary storage LFP market is starting to eclipse its EV sales, so the company needs to localize its LFP supply chain, including cells and critical minerals, to reduce reliance on China.
TSLA MED
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 10:31
North American LFP supply chain localizing
North America is highly dependent on China for LFP battery cells and critical minerals, but the supply chain is localizing quickly. Tesla, LGES, and others need localized cell and critical mineral supply; First Phosphate has already produced the first North American LFP cells using fully North American feedstock, demonstrating a viable route to reduce reliance on China.
North American LFP battery supply chain HIGH
John Passalacqua CEO and Director, First Phosphate Corp. 10:54
First Phosphate builds North American LFP supply
First Phosphate is developing an integrated North American LFP battery supply chain anchored by its igneous phosphate deposit in Saguenay, Quebec, just 50-70 km from a deep-sea port. The deposit has 200Mt inferred and 50Mt indicated resources, enough for 350 GWh of LFP batteries for 23 years, and the project economics show $2.1B NPV, 37.1% IRR, 2.9-year payback, ~$500M capex, and 900ktpa production. It has no debt or royalties, 200-400kt of European offtake, government support, feasibility targeted for end-2026, permitting in early 2027, and production by 2029. Management owns ~25% and is paid in stock, and the stock trades at ~4% of NPV.
PHOS FRSPF HIGH
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This The David Lin Report video, published September 28, 2025, features John Passalacqua discussing LFP battery supply chain, ICLN, Purified phosphoric acid, Igneous phosphate, TSLA, North American LFP battery supply chain, PHOS, FRSPF. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: John Passalacqua  · Tickers: LFP battery supply chain, ICLN, Purified phosphoric acid, Igneous phosphate, TSLA, North American LFP battery supply chain, PHOS, FRSPF