Semiconductors, Again Memory Peak Controversy...NVIDIA, OpenAI Financial Guarantee Discussion [Wall Street Newsletter]

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 27, 2026 at 21:59  |  45:01  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Park Myung-seok — Curator

Summary

The video recaps overnight market moves with a focus on the sharp rotation out of AI hardware into software and hyperscalers. Semiconductors dropped broadly on China DUV fears, Morgan Stanley's memory peak call, and Nvidia’s OpenAI guarantee raising capex sustainability worries, while Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Palantir, and other software names rallied. The host also highlights strength in crypto equity proxies, drones, quantum, space, and traditional auto as evidence of market broadening despite the hardware weakness.

  • US indices mixed: S&P 500 and Dow rose, Nasdaq flat as semis dragged; Russell 2000 outperformed.
  • Hardware carnage led by Nvidia -5%, AMD -5%, Sandisk -11% on China CXMT listing and memory peak fears.
  • ASML hit on Chinese DUV news, but the speaker and BofA argue the impact is only 2.4% of sales and EUV dominance untouched.
  • Nvidia's possible $250B guarantee for OpenAI data center drove CDS spike and deepened capex repayment fears.
  • Rotation favors software/hyperscalers: Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, Cadence all rose.
  • Nvidia's open-source AI security initiative boosted partner names Naver and SK Telecom.
  • Crypto proxy BitMine surged after raising Ethereum holdings near 5% target.
  • Other rotation beneficiaries: D-Wave (quantum), Kratos (drones), Rocket Lab (space), Mobileye and Rivian (autonomy/EV).
Ideas
Rotation from AI hardware to software.
Market is rotating out of AI hardware into software/hyperscalers. Capex sustainability doubts have shifted the narrative: previously hyperscaler investment lifted hardware, but now markets question free cash flow, causing persistent hardware selling. Money is flowing into Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and other software names. Hardware will stay under pressure until hyperscalers resolve these capex concerns.
Rotation from AI hardware to software.
Market is rotating out of AI hardware into software/hyperscalers. Capex sustainability doubts have shifted the narrative: previously hyperscaler investment lifted hardware, but now markets question free cash flow, causing persistent hardware selling. Money is flowing into Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and other software names. Hardware will stay under pressure until hyperscalers resolve these capex concerns.
ASML DUV fear overblown, EUV dominant.
ASML's sell-off on China DUV news is completely overblown. The DUV impact is only 2.4% of sales, and EUV leadership remains intact and irreplaceable. The drop presents an attractive entry opportunity. BofA explicitly called it a buying opportunity.
Chip design software divergence play.
Cadence Design Systems is rising as the hardware-software divergence persists. Chip design software becomes more critical when the hardware sector struggles. Its earnings and after-hours strength confirm that investment in chip design efficiency is still a priority.
Naver and SKT ride Nvidia alliance.
Naver and SK Telecom are rising as part of the Nvidia-led open-source AI security alliance. Naver, with Nvidia as its third-largest shareholder, is viewed as a neo-cloud and holds GPUs, while SKT is a founding member of the alliance, benefiting from the AI open ecosystem push.
Open AI trend benefits Palantir.
Palantir benefits from the open-model AI trend. When AI moves from expensive closed models to open, widely used models, Palantir can more easily integrate enterprise AX solutions, reversing the competitive threat from proprietary models. CEO Karp was an early advocate for open models, and revaluation is underway.
Ethereum accumulator rewarded for conviction.
BitMine, an Ethereum accumulator like Strategy (MSTR) but for ETH, increased its ETH holdings to 4.8% of the target 5%, buying relentlessly during weakness. The market rewarded this commitment with a double-digit stock surge, reflecting crypto rotation.
Drone sector warming, Kratos upside.
Drone sector is gaining market favor, with Anduril's funding success signaling momentum. Kratos saw its target raised by Riley, and the market is becoming more friendly to drone/defense tech, giving Kratos significant upside potential.
Largest contract ever for Rocket Lab.
Rocket Lab secured its largest ever contract ($266M) from the Space Force for missile defense development. The stock had been beaten down and is now bouncing off the bottom on this catalyst.
Quantum adoption starting, D-Wave leads.
D-Wave Quantum is seeing real quantum adoption by telecoms (AT&T partnership) for network optimization. This validates commercial usage and drove the stock up sharply. Stifel sees a double to $35, backed by actual contract wins.
Mobileye CEO exit resolved, upside.
Mobileye's CEO resignation shock is behind it, and Piper Sandler sees the robotaxi/humanoid development decision as encouraging. The stock has been heavily sold off and now looks undervalued with a target raise.
Rivian survivor play, software upside.
Rivian has survived the EV shakeout while Lucid struggles. Delivery outlook and software monetization path are positive. Piper Sandler raised target, seeing it as a viable electric truck and future autonomy play.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published July 27, 2026, features Park Myung-seok discussing MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, SMH, ASML, CDNS, 017670.KS, 035420.KS, PLTR, BITMINE, KTOS, RKLB, QBTS, MBLY, RIVN. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Myung-seok  · Tickers: MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, SMH, ASML, CDNS, 017670.KS, 035420.KS, PLTR, BITMINE, KTOS, RKLB, QBTS, MBLY, RIVN