Top Stocks for 2026 w/ Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, & Clay Finck
Speakers
Shawn O'Malley
— Host, Intrinsic Value Podcast
Daniel Mahncke
— Head of Research, 21Shares
Clay Finck
— Host, The FinTwit Podcast
Summary
Clay Finck, Shawn O'Malley, and Daniel Mahncke share top stock ideas for 2026. Shawn pitches Exor as a discounted holding-company proxy for Ferrari, Daniel pitches Mercado Libre as a Latin American e-commerce and fintech compounder, and Clay pitches Meta as an AI-benefiting advertising platform. The conversation covers valuation, competition, capital allocation, and the main risks around each pick.
- Shawn pitches Exor at a roughly 60% discount to NAV, with Ferrari as the crown jewel.
- Ferrari is framed as an elite luxury compounder but rarely cheap directly.
- Daniel pitches Mercado Libre as a dominant Latin American e-commerce and payments flywheel.
- Clay pitches Meta as an out-of-favor AI advertising beneficiary trading near a market multiple.
- The speakers debate Meta's capex intensity, competition, and management capital allocation.
- Shawn flags Stellantis as unattractive standalone due to EV and self-driving disruption.
- Daniel mentions PayPal as a watch after a changed timeline and Nubank as an existing holding.
Ideas
Discounted holding company with Ferrari crown jewel.
Exor is a publicly listed holding company controlled by the Agnelli family that owns about 20% of Ferrari and a mix of other public and private assets. It trades at roughly a 60% discount to NAV, and its Ferrari stake alone is worth more than Exor's entire market cap, so investors get Ferrari exposure at about half price plus other assets for free. Management has compounded NAV around 18% annually since 2009 versus 12% for MSCI World, has shrunk shares through buybacks including a reverse Dutch auction, maintains an A- balance sheet, and has improved transparency. Even a bear case of 5% NAV growth and discount narrowing only to 50% implies roughly 10% annualized returns, while base and bull cases imply 15-16% and 20%+ returns. Risks are Ferrari rerating lower and Exor selling Ferrari to recycle into lower-quality assets.
Elite luxury brand with pricing power.
Ferrari is an exceptional luxury brand with pricing power, a rabidly loyal customer base where about 80% of sales go to repeat customers, ROIC above 20%, and EPS compounding at 18% annually for a decade. It can raise prices 8-10% per year and grow earnings without increasing volumes, while recycling excess cash into dividends and buybacks. Shawn is bullish on Ferrari long term but says it rarely looks cheap directly, so his preferred expression is Exor to buy Ferrari exposure at a discount.
Avoid standalone Stellantis on EV disruption.
Stellantis is the weakest-looking part of Exor's portfolio because Chinese EVs are rapidly taking market share in Europe and Latin America, and self-driving cars could further disrupt traditional automakers. Shawn would not invest in Stellantis on its own, though he views it as free optionality at cyclical lows inside Exor.
Watch PayPal inflection; timing unclear.
Daniel had planned to pitch PayPal as a 2026 inflection-year deep value idea. After the CFO spoke at a conference, the tone changed the timeline and the 2026 setup no longer looks as clear, but he says the core thesis still holds, especially at the current valuation. He chose to pitch Mercado Libre instead, making PayPal a developing watch rather than a top pick.
LatAm e-commerce and fintech compounder.
Mercado Libre is the dominant e-commerce and payments ecosystem in Latin America, with 27 consecutive quarters of 30%+ growth. Latin American e-commerce penetration is only about 14-15% versus 24% in the US, leaving a long structural runway. MELI built a powerful flywheel through Mercado Pago payments and a hybrid logistics network including about 100 warehouses, MELI Air, and pickup points, giving it hard-to-copy advantages against Amazon, Shopee, and Temu. The fintech arm uses first-party behavioral data for credit underwriting and earns roughly 20% risk-adjusted margins, and management has maintained low dilution with SBC near 1% of revenue. Margins are depressed from deliberate reinvestment but should expand as logistics and fintech scale, with advertising a further high-margin option. The stock is down about 25% from highs and looks reasonably valued for a 4-5 year hold.
LatAm neobank holding with strong fundamentals.
Nubank is a Latin American neobank with low funding costs, a trusted consumer brand, a cleaner credit portfolio, lower NPLs than Mercado Pago, and reserves above expected losses. Shawn says he did much of the work on it, has been impressed by its consistent numbers, and sees big ambitions including a US banking charter. It is a holding in the Intrinsic Value portfolio.
AI-powered ad compounder at fair price.
Meta is an out-of-favor Magnificent Seven stock with a strong advertising business, revenue growth above 25%, ad pricing up 10% year-over-year, and an adjusted P/E around 22, roughly in line with the S&P 500 excluding the Mag 7. Clay sees AI as a major tailwind: it lowers content creation costs, improves recommendations and engagement, makes ads more effective and higher-priced, and helps advertisers create and test creatives. He argues capex fears are overdone because most spending supports the core family-of-apps infrastructure and AI returns are already visible in engagement and ad performance. WhatsApp's 3 billion users provide early monetization optionality, and Meta does not need the best LLM to win. Risks include rising capital intensity, Reality Labs losses, and being a laggard in frontier LLMs. Clay owns shares at an average price around $648, about 3% of his portfolio, and would add more.
Up Next
This We Study Billionaires video, published January 02, 2026, features Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, Clay Finck discussing EXO, EXXRF, RACE, STLA, PYPL, MELI, NU, META. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, Clay Finck · Tickers: EXO, EXXRF, RACE, STLA, PYPL, MELI, NU, META