Ideas
Policy divergence supports dollar weakness.
Dollar weakness is supported by policy divergence: the US is in an easing cycle while Europe holds and Canada/Australia may hike, with Japan having hiked; if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, dollar weakness likely persists, though a Warsh appointment could cause a reversal.
Supply glut keeps oil downtrend.
Oil fell about 15% YTD; for 2025, supply glut concerns are outweighing geopolitical risks, so the downtrend is likely to persist.
Demand and acquisitions support Nvidia.
Nvidia has strong demand signals: China reportedly ordered over 2 million AI chips, Nvidia asked TSMC for extra output, ByteDance could buy about $14B of chips in 2026 if H20 sales are allowed, and acquisitions such as Groq and AI21 Labs strengthen inference, software, and AI talent; GPU prices are also rising.
GPU price hikes support AMD.
AMD is expected to raise GPU prices first in January and Nvidia in February because memory prices are rising; GPU prices are likely to stay on an upward trend, supporting pricing power for AMD.
AI agent software is next phase.
AI is moving from discovery to broad diffusion, and investors should focus on software companies that integrate AI models into real work systems and lead in AI agents, as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's memo implies.
SMR small caps remain under pressure.
SMR and nuclear small caps such as NuScale Power and Oklo have been weak because rates remain high and liquidity is tight, making unprofitable, indebted small caps difficult; that trend appears to continue.
Bitcoin needs early-year rebound.
Bitcoin fell 6.3% last year and Q4 was -23%, with extreme fear and ETF outflows; resistance is at $88-89k and Bollinger Bands are compressed, so it needs a rebound by January-February to preserve the seasonal pattern, otherwise further correction is likely.
Earnings momentum drives US stocks.
The 2025 S&P 500 rise was mostly explained by 11.7% EPS growth while P/E stayed in a 21-23x range; 2026 consensus EPS growth is about 13%, but multiple expansion is unlikely unless inflation or growth shifts, so earnings momentum and stock selection should drive returns.
US IT earnings lead consensus.
The IT sector is expected to show double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and has consistently beaten consensus, making it one of the stronger US sector areas.
US industrials offer dynamic earnings.
Industrials are expected to have double-digit earnings growth with diverse sub-industries, creating attractive stock-level dynamics in 2026.
Alphabet estimates look too conservative.
Communication services EPS estimates look too conservative; Alphabet has consistently beaten consensus, and forward estimates appear flat and conservative despite cloud capex and depreciation uncertainty, so upside is likely.
Meta EPS estimates look conservative.
Meta's forward EPS estimates look conservative; cuts to Reality Labs losses and layoffs should lift EPS, and Meta has a pattern of beating consensus.
Buy early-year market weakness.
Late-December and early-January weakness has been common, including weak starts in 2024 and 2025, so if investors believe in earnings and fundamentals, early-year weakness should be used as a buying opportunity.
Samsung foundry chain benefits Tesna.
Samsung Electronics foundry momentum is helping related equipment and materials more than the SK hynix value chain; Doosan Tesna is expected to swing from loss to profit in 2026 as Samsung foundry momentum builds.
AutoEver valuation looks stretched.
Hyundai AutoEver rallied on expectations tied to Hyundai Motor's Nvidia H-chip and robotics, but its forward P/E is around 40x and the move looks momentum-driven, so valuation caution is warranted.
Entertainment has China and BTS catalysts.
Korean entertainment stocks are strong; President Lee Jae-myung's China visit on Jan 4 and Jan 7 raises summit hopes, and BTS's reported March 20 comeback provides short-term momentum for Hive, SM, and YG.
Hyundai and Kia may turn.
Foreigners began buying Korean autos in December as tariff issues eased; the market views Hyundai and Kia as the main companies besides Tesla investing aggressively in robots, with autonomous driving momentum and cheap valuations, so they could turn in 2026.
Foldable hinge demand boosts Fine M-Tec.
Fine M-Tec is a foldable hinge play; Apple's expected foldable launch and improving Samsung foldables could drive strong revenue and profit growth, with forward EPS expected to turn positive and grow sharply.
Refining margins lift S-Oil.
S-Oil should see steep earnings growth as Dubai crude declines and refining margins improve.
ESS momentum drives LG Energy Solution.
LG Energy Solution had a weak 2025 but earnings are improving from Q3; despite a weak Q4, ESS momentum in H2 2026 should drive a recovery.
Cube prober orders lift Techwing.
Techwing's cube prober is expected to be supplied to all three memory makers in 2026, driving steep EPS growth.
Simmtech turnaround on socket momentum.
Simmtech was weak last year but should turn around with socket momentum, and EPS is expected to swing to positive growth in 2026.
LG Chem boosted by LGES consolidation.
LG Chem's 2026 earnings should improve mainly because LG Energy Solution is consolidated, not because chemicals or refining margins are recovering strongly, so the improvement is less clean.
Inbound demand supports Lotte Shopping.
Lotte Shopping is a name with momentum from expanding inbound demand.
Korean semiconductor leaders look safest.
Korean semiconductors look safest; Samsung Electronics earnings expectations are rising ahead of its Jan 8 release after strong Micron results, SK hynix also has an earnings release, and foreign flows are concentrated in these names.
Samyang Foods drop is opportunity.
Samyang Foods' recent drop on short-term export concerns is an opportunity; its US subsidiary and new Miryang plant should raise overseas sales about 30% to KRW 2.5T in 2026, improve ASP mix and margins, and the stock trades around 18x forward P/E, supporting a buy-and-hold strategy.
Tesla contract cut hurts L&F sentiment.
L&F's Tesla 4680 contract was reduced from KRW 3.8T to KRW 9.73M because North American EV demand weakened and Tesla adjusted its 4680 project; actual revenue impact was minimal, but near-term sentiment is weak, and the broker prefers ESS-exposed battery names over L&F.
FSD and robotaxi drive Tesla.
Tesla's Q4 delivery report is less important than FSD expansion and robotaxi progress; energy storage capacity rose 22% YoY, and the release could clear uncertainty and improve market sentiment.
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published January 02, 2026,
features Seo-yeong, Choi Ho, Park Se-ik, Oh Woo-seok, Wang Jeong
discussing DXY, WTI, NVDA, AMD, AI-SECTOR, SMR, OKLO, BTC, SPY, XLK, XLI, GOOGL, META, 131970.KQ, Samsung foundry value chain, 307950.KS, 352820.KS, 041510.KQ, 122870.KQ, 005380.KS, 000270.KS, Fine m-tec, 010950.KS, 373220.KS, 089030.KQ, 222800.KQ, 051910.KS, 023530.KS, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, 003230.KS, L&F, TSLA.
28 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Seo-yeong,
Choi Ho,
Park Se-ik,
Oh Woo-seok,
Wang Jeong
· Tickers:
DXY,
WTI,
NVDA,
AMD,
AI-SECTOR,
SMR,
OKLO,
BTC,
SPY,
XLK,
XLI,
GOOGL,
META,
131970.KQ,
Samsung foundry value chain,
307950.KS,
352820.KS,
041510.KQ,
122870.KQ,
005380.KS,
000270.KS,
Fine m-tec,
010950.KS,
373220.KS,
089030.KQ,
222800.KQ,
051910.KS,
023530.KS,
005930.KS,
000660.KS,
003230.KS,
L&F,
TSLA
