2026: The Battle Must Be Bet in Q1! | Economic Commentator Yoon Ji-ho

2026년, 승부는 1분기에 걸어야 한다! | 윤지호 경제평론가 [인뎁스60]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 00:54  |  30:35  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Yoon Ji-ho — Economic Commentator

Summary

Yoon Ji-ho argues that the first quarter of 2026 is the key window for Korean equity exposure, with the KOSPI supported by semiconductor-driven earnings revisions and reasonable forward valuation. He sees a memory shortage and weak won benefiting Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and selected exporters, while warning that the EPS-led rally may pause after Q1. He also favors concentrated market leaders over a value-style rotation.

  • Yoon Ji-ho argues the first quarter of 2026 is the key window for Korean equity exposure.
  • He sees the KOSPI as supported by semiconductor-driven earnings revisions and reasonable forward valuation.
  • Memory chip shortage, urgent global buyer purchasing, and rising DRAM prices underpin Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
  • Weak won benefits Korean exporters, with Hyundai Motor, Hyundai Glovis, and HYBE mentioned as specific beneficiaries.
  • He prefers concentrated leaders over value rotation and expects large securities firms to outperform smaller brokers.
  • He warns that the EPS-led semiconductor rally may pause or correct after Q1, especially around April.
Ideas
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 1:56
Q1 is key window for Korea.
Korean equities remain an earnings-led market in early 2026. Yoon argues the first quarter is the key window to bet because semiconductor-driven EPS revisions are accelerating, the KOSPI forward P/E is near its long-term average and could be only about 9x if SK hynix and Samsung Electronics earnings estimates are met. Valuation provides some downside cushion against tariff or policy shocks, but after Q1 or around April the EPS-led momentum may pause and correction risk rises.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 2:32
Treasury-share reform aids holding companies.
Q1 has a corporate-governance catalyst from the Commercial Act revision related to treasury shares. Yoon says holding companies and companies with high treasury-share ratios, such as Mirae Asset Securities, could be ideas because the reform may increase their attractiveness or value.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 2:52
Memory shortage drives semiconductor earnings.
The memory semiconductor cycle is in a shortage-driven upcycle. Global buyers such as Google, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia are reportedly in Korea urgently securing supply, causing over-ordering before excess inventory appears; commodity DRAM prices have jumped from around $4 to above $9. This is driving strong earnings revisions for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and Yoon says semiconductor exposure should be at least half of the portfolio because the earnings-led flow is likely to persist through at least February and possibly into March/April.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 2:52
Weak won boosts Korean exporters.
The weak won is bad for the broad Korean economy but good for exporters because their dollar revenues translate into higher won earnings. Yoon says export-company earnings re-rating should become visible around January and April releases, naming autos, shipbuilders, cosmetics, ramen makers and entertainment as areas to watch. This is a broad complement to the semiconductor-led market.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 3:19
HYBE gains from BTS dollar revenue.
HYBE is a named weak-won export beneficiary. Yoon points to a BTS album scheduled for March and the conversion of album and concert revenue into dollars from next year as a potential re-rating catalyst for the entertainment company.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 19:48
Hyundai Motor and Glovis export proxies.
If investors cannot handle semiconductor volatility, Yoon specifically suggests Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Glovis as alternative weak-won export beneficiaries. Their dollar-linked auto and logistics earnings should benefit from the weak won and the January/April export earnings re-rating cycle.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 23:02
Large brokers beat small brokers.
Within the broader concentration trend, Yoon says large Korean securities firms should do better while small and mid-sized brokers increasingly struggle. This is a sector-level relative call tied to market maturation and share concentration.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 23:02
Large brokers beat small brokers.
Within the broader concentration trend, Yoon says large Korean securities firms should do better while small and mid-sized brokers increasingly struggle. This is a sector-level relative call tied to market maturation and share concentration.
Yoon Ji-ho Economic Commentator 23:37
Value rotation is inappropriate this year.
Although many investors expect a value-style rotation in 2026, Yoon says the value-stock argument is inappropriate for this phase. He argues portfolios with high semiconductor weighting will win and those with low semiconductor weighting will lose, implying Korean value stocks are likely to lag.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 02, 2026, features Yoon Ji-ho discussing EWY, Korean holding companies, 006800.KS, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, Korean exporters, Korean shipbuilders, 352820.KS, 005380.KS, 086280.KS, Large Korean securities firms, Korean small/mid securities firms, Korean Value Stocks. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Yoon Ji-ho  · Tickers: EWY, Korean holding companies, 006800.KS, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, Korean exporters, Korean shipbuilders, 352820.KS, 005380.KS, 086280.KS, Large Korean securities firms, Korean small/mid securities firms, Korean Value Stocks