Trump's 10% Global Tariffs Kick In | Daybreak Europe 2/24/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Global Trade War Escalation (2026): President Trump's 10% global tariffs have officially kicked in, with administration officials seeking to raise them to 15%. This follows a Supreme Court ruling striking down previous sweeping duties, forcing a "piecemeal" investigation approach.
- The "AI Scare" Trade: A sharp rotation is occurring out of US AI software and intermediaries (triggered by an IBM/Anthropic dispute regarding code obsolescence) and into physical assets and Asian hardware manufacturers.
- Geopolitical Stagnation: The war in Ukraine enters its fifth year with no resolution in sight; European unity is fracturing as Hungary and Slovakia block sanctions/loans.
- Currency Wars: The US Treasury (Secretary Bessent) is conducting FX rate checks, signaling potential friction over the Japanese Yen, which traders are pushing lower due to lack of intervention from the BOJ.
Trade Ideas
While US markets are selling off on an "AI Scare" (fearing code obsolescence), Asian markets are shrugging it off. Cranfield notes Asia holds the "picks and shovels" (chips and data centers). The "AI Scare" hurts intermediaries and software wrappers (US-centric), but the demand for the underlying hardware (memory, data centers) remains robust. Asia owns the hardware supply chain. LONG Asian Hardware manufacturers as they decouple from the US software sentiment shock. Global recession reducing overall hardware demand; Trump tariffs specifically targeting Asian tech exports.
There is an aggressive rotation out of "AI-disrupted" shares and overbought tech stocks. Investors are fleeing volatility and high valuations in tech for "physical assets" and defensive sectors that offer tangible value and stability during the tariff implementation phase. LONG Defensive/Physical sectors (Pharma, Staples, Industrials) as capital rotates out of software. If the "AI Scare" proves temporary, capital may rotate back into growth tech quickly.
Carrier argues we are past "peak tariff disruption" and identifies relative winners in the new trade landscape: China, Brazil, and India. These economies are viewed as better positioned to adapt or have already priced in the trade friction, whereas US allies are facing unexpected pressure. LONG Emerging Markets (specifically China, Brazil, India). Trump administration raising tariffs from 10% to 15% unexpectedly.
Gold is trading near record highs ($2951) and saw a "flight to treasuries" and safe havens yesterday. The combination of tariff uncertainty (10% vs 15%), the "AI Scare," and geopolitical stagnation (Ukraine Year 5) is driving capital into non-sovereign stores of value. LONG Gold as a hedge against policy confusion and market volatility. A resolution to the tariff uncertainty or a hawkish Fed response to inflation.
Bill Winters
CEO, Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered announced a $1.45 billion share buyback and increased dividends after a strong Q4. The CEO states the bank is "firing on all cylinders," hitting 2026 targets a year early (in 2025), and views the shares as undervalued. He is also super bullish on China despite the macro noise. LONG Standard Chartered on strong capital returns and operational momentum. Significant deterioration in the Chinese economy (their major growth market).
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
Reports indicate US Treasury Secretary Bessent initiated FX rate checks, but Japanese authorities have remained silent/passive. Traders are "testing the boundaries." Without explicit verbal support or intervention from the Bank of Japan, the market will push the currency lower. SHORT JPY (expecting USDJPY to rise) as the "path of least resistance" is for the Yen to decline. Sudden coordinated intervention by the BOJ or US Treasury.
Frederique Carrier
Head of Investment Strategy, RBC Wealth Management
Carrier explicitly names the UK and Australia as "losers" in the current tariff environment. These US allies are facing tariffs higher than their trade deals agreed to, creating a negative shock to their export-dependent economies without the insulation of a massive domestic consumer base like the US. SHORT UK and Australian equities. New bilateral trade exemptions being negotiated.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 24, 2026, features Mark Cranfield, Frederique Carrier, Vonnie Quinn, Bill Winters discussing SSNLF, EWJ, XLI, XLP, XPH, FXI, EWZ, INDA, GOLD, STAN, JPY, EWA, EWU. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mark Cranfield, Frederique Carrier, Vonnie Quinn, Bill Winters · Tickers: SSNLF, EWJ, XLI, XLP, XPH, FXI, EWZ, INDA, GOLD, STAN, JPY, EWA, EWU