Next Market Crash To Last 20 Years But Gareth Soloway Is 'Unbelievably' Long On This Asset
Summary
- Japan 1980s Parallel: Soloway predicts the US stock market may have topped out and could face a 20-year period without new all-time highs, similar to Japan's "Lost Decades."
- Yield/Stock Correlation Shift: A fundamental shift has occurred where lower yields now signal economic weakness (recession/lower profits) rather than "cheap money," causing stocks to fall alongside yields.
- Bitcoin Contrarian Bounce: Despite a bearish long-term view, Soloway forecasts a sharp short-term relief rally in Bitcoin (20-30% upside) due to excessively bearish sentiment and a potential regulatory bill.
- Commodity Supercycle: Oil is favored due to the end of the US shale boom and geopolitical tension (Iran), while silver has a "buy the dip" level significantly lower than current prices.
Trade Ideas
Soloway identifies a "parallel channel" on the S&P 500 chart connecting lows from COVID and 2022. The index recently tagged the top of this channel and is now putting in lower highs and lower lows. Technical rejection at the top of a long-term channel typically leads to a mean reversion to the bottom of the channel. Additionally, the correlation shift (bad economic news = stocks down) removes the "Fed Put" safety net. Short the index targeting a move to 6,100 (approx. 10% drop) by mid-year, with a secondary target of 5,600. A sudden reversal in Fed policy or a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could spark a squeeze.
Soloway explicitly states the Oracle (ORCL) chart is "almost identical" to the Bitcoin chart and that software stocks are "due for a relief rally." Since he forecasts a 20-30% bounce in Bitcoin based on technicals, the correlated asset (Oracle/Software) should experience a similar sympathy rally. Long Oracle as a tactical swing trade to capture the sector rotation into software. If the broad market (S&P 500) sells off aggressively, high-beta software stocks may get dragged down despite the specific setup.
In a potential "Japan-style" 20-year sideways market, capital appreciation will be non-existent. Soloway specifically names Microsoft as a solid company that pays a dividend. When stock prices stagnate for decades, dividends become the *only* source of real return and the only hedge against inflation. Investors must shift from "growth" to "yield + quality." Long high-quality dividend payers like MSFT to preserve purchasing power over a multi-decade stagnation period. Tech valuations compress further, reducing the principal investment despite the dividend yield.
Gareth Soloway
President of Verified Investing
Silver is currently in a "bear flag" formation. Soloway identifies the $50–$54 range (underlying spot price) as the "epic level to buy." The chart suggests a retest of the breakout levels from 1980 and 2011 is necessary before the next major bull run. Buying now is catching a falling knife; buying at historical support is high-probability. Do not buy yet. Set limit orders to buy heavily if/when Silver drops to the $50–$54 range. Silver could reverse early and never hit the "epic" buy zone, causing a missed opportunity.
Gareth Soloway
President of Verified Investing
Bitcoin sentiment is at extreme lows (Fear & Greed index below 10), and the chart shows an "inside bar" bullish pattern. Soloway expects a regulatory bill to pass soon, acting as a catalyst. When sentiment is universally bearish but price holds support, it often signals a "washout" is complete. A relief rally is probable to close the divergence gap between crypto and equities before the long-term downtrend resumes. Long Bitcoin (via ETF) for a swing trade targeting $80,000–$85,000 on the underlying asset (approx. 20-30% upside). Breaking below $60,000 (underlying) invalidates the bullish inside bar pattern.
Gareth Soloway
President of Verified Investing
US Shale production is reaching the end of its "boom" phase (production drops off after 2 years), and geopolitical tensions with Iran are escalating. Supply constraints (shale depletion) combined with war risk premiums create a floor for oil prices. Even in a recession, supply shocks could drive oil to $100/barrel. Long Oil on pullbacks, using $55/barrel (underlying WTI) as the critical "line in the sand" support level. A deep global recession could crush demand faster than supply constricts.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published February 24, 2026, features Gareth Soloway discussing SPY, ORCL, MSFT, SLV, BITO, USO. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Gareth Soloway · Tickers: SPY, ORCL, MSFT, SLV, BITO, USO