MacroVoices #515 Rory Johnston: Why Trump is Keeping The Oil Price High
Speakers
Rory Johnston
— Founder, Commodity Context
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Summary
MacroVoices episode #515 features Rory Johnston discussing crude oil markets, Trump's sanctions-driven supply bottlenecks, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, the SPR, and time spreads. Rory argues sanctions are keeping oil higher than fundamentals would imply, but expects geopolitical rallies to fade and the eventual supply glut to push prices lower. The postgame segment covers Patrick Ceresna's WTI put credit spread, sector rotation and S&P risk, the dollar, gold, silver, copper, and uranium.
- Rory Johnston argues Trump's sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have removed supply and kept oil prices higher than otherwise.
- Venezuela's 30-50 million barrel release is likely smaller and one-time; production recovery would take years and heavy investment.
- Rory sees the current crude rally as geopolitical and likely to fade, with the eventual glut pushing the curve into contango.
- Erik and Rory discuss WTI forward-curve kinks and a potential March 2027/March 2028 calendar spread trade.
- Patrick presents a WTI 59/55 bull put spread as a probability-weighted income trade.
- Postgame charts cover S&P correction risk, a neutral dollar setup, gold strength, silver blowoff risk, copper targets, and uranium leadership.
- Uranium and uranium miners are highlighted as Patrick's high-conviction 2026 trade.
Ideas
Sanctions keep oil supply tight
The global oil market was headed into pronounced oversupply in 2025, with supply outrunning demand by as much as 3 million barrels per day, but President Trump's intensified sanctions and enforcement against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have prevented that glut from fully transmitting into prices. Sanctioned barrels are being produced but trapped in floating storage or otherwise unavailable, with oil-on-water builds of roughly 750,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025 taking nearly a third of the glut off the market. Rory says Trump has therefore been a bullish factor on oil prices and prices would be much lower without these actions.
Venezuela pressure weighs on WCS
Heavy crude benchmarks are already feeling pressure from Venezuela developments. The WCS differential at Houston widened from about $4 per barrel under WTI in November to roughly $7.50-$8 under WTI, which Rory cites as evidence that Venezuelan heavy crude and the unblocking of trapped barrels are weighing on heavy crude values.
Chevron has unique Venezuela upside
Chevron is the standout company-level winner from Venezuela because it never left the country, held onto its assets, and has worked under sanctions-waiver arrangements across administrations. Rory says it is all upside for Chevron and that it can likely capture the first 200,000-300,000 barrels per day of low-hanging production growth within a year or so, while other majors like Exxon consider Venezuela uninvestable.
Buy WTI 2027/2028 calendar spread
Erik highlights the persistent odd kink in the WTI forward curve and proposes buying the March 2027-March 2028 WTI calendar spread, which is entirely in contango. Based on the pattern previously seen when the January 2026-January 2027 spread flipped from contango to backwardation, he expects this later calendar spread to do the same over the next year, and says the spread trade compares favorably with trying to trade flat-price direction.
Sell WTI 59/55 put spread
Patrick recommends a short-dated WTI put credit spread as the trade of the week. With crude around $59.80, sell the February 17, 2026 $59 put at $2.35 and buy the $55 put at $0.80, collecting about $1.55 net credit per barrel or $1,500 per contract. The thesis is that crude can look oversupplied on paper but sanctions and oil-on-water bottlenecks keep barrels from clearing, making the mid-to-high $50s a soft floor. The trade has defined risk: max profit $155 if WTI settles at or above $59, breakeven $57.45, max loss $245 below $55, with roughly 62% implied probability of expiring above breakeven.
Watch S&P 6850-6900 support
Patrick is watching for a deeper S&P correction. The MAG 7 ETF has continued to deteriorate under mega-cap selling pressure, and the financial sector ETF has broken down after earnings from JPMorgan and Bank of America, potentially derailing a leadership area. He sees 6,850-6,900 on S&P futures as the key line in the sand; a technical breakdown there could trigger CTA and systematic profit-taking and usher in a first-quarter correction.
Dollar trend uncertain; watch 99-99.5
The U.S. dollar has taken out its 200-day moving average and is setting up for a golden cross, so the clear established downtrend is changing. But Patrick is not convinced it is a true trend reversal; he thinks the recent dollar strength could be short-term geopolitical reaction to Trump's bold moves, and if so, it may retrace and resume lower. He views 98-99 as a neutral zone and wants a clear break of the 99-99.5 Fibonacci zone for bullish follow-through before taking strong positioning.
Fade headline-driven crude oil rally
Erik says the big crude oil upside move was caused by geopolitical headline risk around possible U.S. military intervention in Iran. When Trump signaled he might not need to interfere, oil whipsawed, confirming the move was geopolitical risk premium rather than a new fundamental trend. Erik says the next move is headline dependent and that he is fading the technical uptrend signal because it is headline driven.
Gold bull continues after correction
Gold made a fresh all-time high, activating measured move targets around $4,900-$5,100. Erik warns that much of the recent upside was geopolitical risk premium tied to Iran strike speculation, and if that premium evaporates, gold could see a significant short-term correction and is already overbought on stochastics. Still, he is convinced the gold bull market will eventually continue, so he treats near-term weakness as a correction within a longer-term bull trend.
Gold targets 4800-5000, path higher
Patrick agrees with Erik's constructive gold targets but has slightly lower upside targets around $4,800-$5,000. He says gold continues to run and the broader metals complex is hot, with no evidence the wind has been taken out of the sails, so the path of least resistance is higher toward those targets.
Silver parabolic; watch for blowoff
Silver is making new highs and has entered a parabolic phase with daily swings of around $5. Patrick says it can go higher short term, but such parabolic moves often end in a blowoff or exhaustion, possibly around the $100-plus level, after which silver likely needs a period to settle. He therefore treats it as a hot market to monitor rather than a clean long entry.
Copper uptrend targets 640-650
Copper is trading at 52-week highs and remains very well bid, with no immediate sign of a top. Patrick has upper measured-move targets around 640-650 and sees the path of least resistance higher until those targets are reached.
Uranium is big 2026 winner
Patrick says the structural rally in uranium and uranium miners is clearly on. Even the URA ETF, which had lagged because of its concentration in small modular reactor names, closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its correction, providing the final technical confirmation. Short-term stochastics are overbought, so consolidation is possible, but he has heavy long exposure and expects uranium to be a big winner and the big trade of 2026.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 15, 2026, features Rory Johnston, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna discussing WTI, BNO, Western Canadian Select, CVX, WTI March 2027/March 2028 calendar spread, WTI February 17, 2026 $59/$55 bull put spread, ES=F, US Dollar Index (DXY), GLD, SILVER, COPPER, URA. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Rory Johnston, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: WTI, BNO, Western Canadian Select, CVX, WTI March 2027/March 2028 calendar spread, WTI February 17, 2026 $59/$55 bull put spread, ES=F, US Dollar Index (DXY), GLD, SILVER, COPPER, URA