MacroVoices #516 Craig Tindale: Critical Materials, A Strategic Analysis
Speakers
Craig Tindale
— Private investor and author
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Summary
MacroVoices episode 516 features Craig Tindale explaining how China's dominance in midstream critical materials processing creates strategic vulnerabilities for the West across rare earths, silver, copper, defense, AI data centers, and nuclear buildout. He argues reshoring generic capacity may not be near-term profitable, so investors should focus on scarcity and Western government-subsidized critical materials companies. In the postgame, Patrick Ceresna structures a bullish rare earth ETF trade with a downside put hedge, while the hosts review equities, the dollar, oil, gold, uranium, and copper setups.
- Craig Tindale warns China controls 50–98% of critical metals refining, separation, and magnet production.
- He sees silver as tightly supplied and vulnerable to Chinese export licensing.
- He highlights state-backed critical materials companies such as UCU, IPX, MTM, and Lionus Metals.
- Patrick Ceresna presents a long REMX rare earth basket trade with a downside put hedge.
- Equity discussion notes broadening breadth, small-cap strength, but MAG 7 drag.
- Dollar is rangebound; oil has conflicting technical signals.
- Gold bull market intact but overbought short-term; uranium breakout has room.
- Copper long-term bullish but may consolidate before a tactical dip buy.
Ideas
Copper demand clashes with China supply control
Copper is indispensable for electrification and AI data centers, with examples like 2,177 tons in a Microsoft data center and 60 tons per kilometer of ultra-high-voltage cable. China dominates smelting and refining and is using negative-cost processing to control the midstream, so Western copper costs may rise even if China's own costs fall; however, he cautions copper is not an automatic commodity play because China is gaming the system.
UCU builds Louisiana rare earth capacity
UCU/Unicor has received about $100 million to build rare earth capacity in Louisiana, is entering initial production, and has a closed-loop process with no heavy rare-earth pollution and lower throughput cost than the old method, making it a Western state-backed rare earth refining play.
IPX lowers titanium costs with DoD backing
IperionX (IPX) is producing titanium in Virginia using a University of Utah process that makes titanium powders at roughly 80% lower cost; it has received $115 million from the Department of Defense to scale titanium capability, and 25% of an F-35 is titanium. If commercialization succeeds, it could be a key Western materials company.
Silver deficit and China control drive prices
Silver has run a roughly 5,000-ton annual supply deficit for four years, about 24,000 tons since 2020, while demand rises from electrification, AI data centers, missiles, and robots. About 70% is a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead refining and 60% of that refining is in China; China's new licensing requirement for silver exports to end users could turn a 5,000-ton deficit into 10,000 tons or more, forcing vault draws and sending silver sharply higher.
Lionus advances Texas rare earth refining
Lionus Metals is advancing a rare earth refining project in Texas that has received a go-ahead after ESG and bureaucratic obstacles were removed, though it still depends on Chinese machinery. It is a direct example of the Western reshoring companies he tracks.
Buy Western state-subsidized critical materials plays
China controls 50–98% of critical metals midstream—refining, separation, magnet production, gallium, magnesium, graphite anodes, and tungsten—so the West is strategically exposed across electrification, AI data centers, defense, and nuclear. Reshoring generic capacity will be costly and not immediately profitable; the better opportunity is in scarcity and Western government-subsidized critical materials companies as Western state capitalism picks winners.
MTM processes e-waste via flash heating
MTM is an Australian critical metals company using Rice University flash joule heating to process fly ash and e-waste, extracting metals including gold and silver while creating a circular economy. It has an agreement to take 2,500 tons of e-waste from Glencore; Craig bought it at 8 cents, it is near $1, and he thinks it could reach $50.
Long rare earth basket with put hedge
The rare earth strategic choke point is midstream separation and magnet production, not mining, so express the theme with a basket rather than a single winner. Buy REMX, but because it is already up about 20% year-to-date, pair it with a March 20, 2026 $84 put roughly 10% out of the money to dampen short-term downside while preserving upside.
Bullish S&P while Trump pendulum lasts
The political and geopolitical pendulum has swung back from Trump-versus-Europe fears to a tariff-free Greenland-driven rally, and Erik thinks this is bullish for stocks until the pendulum swings the other way. The key question is whether this swing produces a new all-time high or instead a topping formation.
Equal-weight S&P nears breakout
The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading right along its 52-week high and looks like it wants to break out, indicating broad market strength beneath the cap-weighted index.
Small caps lead broadening market rotation
Market breadth is widening: small caps are making fresh 52-week highs and materially outperforming, suggesting sector rotation and accumulation rather than broad selling.
MAG 7 drags index lower
The MAG 7 remains a substantial drag on the S&P 500, breaking to lower lows while broader market breadth improves; leadership stocks are dragging their heels.
Dollar trapped in 98-99 range
The DXY rally was driven by Trump geopolitical moves and has retraced as those tensions calmed. It is still in a 98–99 consolidation and fair-value range with no clear directional trend, so headlines will determine the next leg.
Oil downside risk rises as geopolitics calm
WTI is struggling at the 200-day moving average near $60.49 and needs a move above $62.50 to confirm the bull move. As geopolitics calm, the risk of a downside retrace toward $59 and then $55 is increasing.
Oil constructive above 50-day average
Oil stopped going down on bad news and the consolidation has held above the 50-day moving average. While it must clear the 200-day moving average to confirm a bull continuation, the price action is constructive and worth watching for a bullish pivot.
Gold bull intact despite gap-fill pullback
Gold's bull market is still on and measured-move targets point to $4,900–$5,100, but there is a large unfilled gap near $4,600, about $250 below the market, that could be filled in a sharp pullback before gold moves higher.
Hold GLD with collar and spreads
Gold remains in a long-term bull market driven by debasement, but the recent near-parabolic advance makes a short-term tactical high and consolidation likely. Existing holders should use a collar on GLD—long put 5% below and sell call 10% above for about $1.50 per share—or take profits on LEAPs and replace them with bull call spreads to restore convexity.
Uranium bull strong but wait pullback
Uranium is in a brisk bull market, helped by Trump reaffirming the nuclear renaissance at Davos, and Erik is convinced it has a long way to run. However, it has risen so fast that a vicious pullback is likely, so waiting for that pullback is prudent for new money.
Uranium miners breakout has room
U3O8 futures have broken out to 52-week highs and uranium equities have also broken out, confirming a new trend. Uranium is not as overbought as gold and gold miners, so there appears to be room to go.
Copper pause before tactical dip buy
Copper's long-term fundamentals remain strong, but after a rapid run from $5 to $6 it has failed to close above $6 and is consolidating. A pause or reversion to the 50-day moving average would create a better tactical buy-on-dip opportunity.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 22, 2026, features Craig Tindale, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing COPPER, UCU, IPX, SILVER, LYC.AX, REMX, MTM, SPY, SP:SPXEW, US Small Caps, MAGS, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA. 20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Craig Tindale, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: COPPER, UCU, IPX, SILVER, LYC.AX, REMX, MTM, SPY, SP:SPXEW, US Small Caps, MAGS, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA