AI will be undersupplied by memory for the next two years, says Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 22, 2026 at 18:51  |  5:22  |  CNBC
Speakers
CJ Muse — Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald

Summary

CJ Muse, senior analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, argued that the memory and storage cycle is different because a seven-year NAND downturn and AI demand will keep the market undersupplied through 2026-2027. He favors Seagate, Western Digital, SanDisk, and Micron, citing strong earnings power. He also warned that memory shortages will reduce PC and smartphone unit volumes, creating weakness in the PC supply chain and handset names, with Qualcomm specifically exposed.

  • CJ Muse says the memory/storage cycle is different due to NAND undersupply and AI demand.
  • He expects the market to be undersupplied in 2026 and 2027, supporting Seagate, Western Digital, SanDisk, and Micron.
  • PC unit volumes are projected to decline 10% this year because of memory constraints.
  • Smartphone unit volumes are projected to decline at least 5%.
  • Clients are described as long memory and short the PC supply chain.
  • Qualcomm is called out for incremental weakness from handset pricing and volumes.
  • Samsung and SK Hynix capacity additions are not expected to alleviate shortages until 2027.
Ideas
CJ Muse Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald 0:34
Memory undersupply drives storage earnings higher
The memory/storage cycle is different because NAND has been in a seven-year down cycle, leaving NAND players with no urgency to add capacity. With incremental AI demand, the market will be undersupplied for all of 2026 and 2027, and CJ does not see the shortage alleviated into 2028, creating tremendous earnings power. SanDisk and Micron could be the first to $50 annualized earnings, and SanDisk could earn $10-$12 in the March quarter versus about $4 on the Street. Cantor has buys across Seagate, Western Digital, SanDisk, and Micron and expects the group to move higher.
SNDK MU STX WDC HIGH
CJ Muse Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald 2:09
Memory shortage hurts smartphone supply chain
Memory shortages are expected to cut smartphone unit volumes by at least 5% this year. CJ says the handset pain is less well known, and Cantor has a less constructive view on smartphone names, expecting real weakness in unit volumes.
Smartphone supply chain MED
CJ Muse Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald 3:30
Memory shortage hurts PC supply chain
Memory shortages are expected to cut PC unit volumes by 10% this year. CJ says many clients are long memory and short the PC supply chain, and he expects the PC supply chain to show real weakness in unit volumes during earnings season.
PC supply chain HIGH
CJ Muse Senior Managing Director for Semiconductor Equity Research at Cantor Fitzgerald 3:45
Handset weakness pressures Qualcomm pricing
Qualcomm is exposed to the memory-driven handset slowdown. CJ expects customers to push lower down in their Snapdragon chips, weighing on pricing, while unit volumes are weaker, leading to incremental weakness for Qualcomm.
QCOM MED
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This CNBC video, published January 22, 2026, features CJ Muse discussing SNDK, MU, STX, WDC, Smartphone supply chain, PC supply chain, QCOM. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: CJ Muse  · Tickers: SNDK, MU, STX, WDC, Smartphone supply chain, PC supply chain, QCOM