Name: What's Driving Bitcoin Higher?
Uploaded: 2025-04-29T21:50:22+00:00
Duration: 3517 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

The hosts discuss Bitcoin's rally to $95k, driven by ETF inflows, on-chain accumulation, and Saylor's MSTR flywheel. They debate positioning for a possible move to $100-105k, warn about debt-fueled MSTR copycat vehicles, and explore privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. Later they cover Plasma, Pendle, RWAs, and Maple as emerging crypto trades.

Bitcoin rallies to $95k on strong ETF inflows and whale buying.
MSTR's flywheel and new copycat vehicles are bullish for Bitcoin but risky.
Hosts discuss taking profits on BTC calls and selling covered calls.
Monero is pitched as the last private currency; Zcash dismissed.
Plasma seen as best rails for Tether; Pendle valued as real business.
RWAs and Maple flagged as growing tokenization opportunities.
Earnings season and tariffs seen as macro overhang for equities.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 1:04

Buy Bitcoin and OTM calls.

Bitcoin is at $95k and can move fast; ETF inflows (~$3B last week, $600M yesterday) and on-chain whale buying point to real demand, not just CME basis arb; macro fragmentation/tariffs make a sovereign-independent asset valuable; MSTR flywheel and copycats are bullish for Bitcoin.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 1:47

Bitcoin outperformance versus stocks continues.

Bitcoin is consistently outperforming stocks; ratio on highs and not mean-reverting; expects grind higher with beta to stocks, gaining ground on selloffs as portfolio diversification, and gapping higher on macro rallies.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 14:38

Buy Bitcoin puts at peak euphoria.

The growth of debt-fueled MSTR copycat/SPV vehicles is a red flag; when their premiums to book reach GBTC-2021 peak levels, buy Bitcoin puts because a Bitcoin drawdown could trigger forced liquidations/cascades.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 29:54

Plasma is best Tether rails.

Tether needs a legitimate fast set of rails; ETH too slow, Tron too drug-dealery; Plasma is best positioned and he invested, very bullish.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 35:00

Monero is the only private currency.

Monero is the only truly private currency left; Bitcoin's privacy use case is gone; consistent demand, low vol, low market cap (~$5B); should be 5% of portfolio; could be worth $15-30B, especially with geopolitical turmoil/capital controls; add on dip.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 37:57

Zcash is trash, avoid.

Zcash is trash; nobody uses it; possible backdoor, artificially inflated ceremony, infinite supply; Monero won privacy coin battle.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 46:58

Hold Bitcoin spot, sell 105 calls.

Bitcoin likely hits $100-105k but stalls, not straight to $120k; take off extra leverage, hold core spot, and sell 105 calls for theta.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 51:59

RWAs will 5-10x this year.

Super bullish RWAs and tokenization because regulation will make it easy; stablecoins proliferating, rails ready, L1 infra can handle billions, gateways popping up; year-long 5-10x trade.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 52:23

Pendle is cheap, growing, dividend-paying.

Real business, ~$1M/week revenue, ~$1B FDV, PE ~22, vePENDLE dividends all fee income, growth, tokenomics sound; if growth continues, 2-10x.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 56:47

Maple TVL 4x, watch closely.

Maple TVL has 4xed since February; doing deep dive on fees, market cap, and growth directions.

What's Driving Bitcoin Higher?

Summary

Ideas

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