FL FLUT Flutter Entertainment plc Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author holds Flutter Entertainment and argues it is a market leader by some distance in a mature Irish market, with its Betfair exchange trading for over 25 years. His thesis is that prediction markets cannot operate long term in their current form unless taxed like betting operators, and that Flutter could pivot using its experience if they persist. He discloses buying at $170 and averaging down, and admits he is a little nervous but expects long-term success.

The author argues Flutter, the bookie behind FanDuel plus UK, Italian and Australian betting sites, was hit by an unholy amount of forced selling from passive funds tracking the MSCI EAFE index after fully delisting from the LSE, compounded by prediction market fears, leaving the stock down about 67%. He adds that Brazil's government then banned (not yet permanently) the industry, dropping the stock another ~25% from $100 to $75, but his DCF math suggests even a pessimistic worst-case impact is only about a $5 haircut, and sell-side maintains largely agree. His probability-weighted, pessimistically skewed price target is about $120, with a catalyst of a rebound next week as US quality growth buyside allocates to non-AI names, and the main risk being that he is wrong and posts loss porn.

The author is putting $20k into Flutter Entertainment ($FLUT), arguing the stock is cheap and that the street still likes it. The stated mechanism is short covering: shorts are sitting on solid gains and will lock them in, which should support the price. No explicit catalyst or time horizon is given, and the author's own admission of being a crayon-eating gambler signals the main risk is that this is a low-conviction gamble.