u/WillTheGreat

The author argues the Fed will surprise markets by holding rates rather than hiking, which would initially rally equities into triple witching but then tank as bond markets react to lost Fed credibility. He contends the Fed literally cannot raise rates because Bessent is trading long-dated bonds for short-dated bonds whose yields the Fed controls, and that forward guidance favors front-running rising costs from expected fuel inflation. The stated catalyst is the upcoming FOMC statement and triple witching; the main risk is that the Fed instead projects a hike or delivers a mixed statement.