u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

The author argues Palantir is losing business as engineers and clients flee over its perceived role as a US federal government spying machine, and notes a disregard for tenders that will become problematic. Air Space Intelligence, a private venture-backed startup, won a contract beating Palantir and is building a conceptually similar data-to-decision stack, which the author frames as a competitive threat. The author also cites stock price manipulation through call options and an absurd valuation (P/S 70, P/E 160) as reasons for caution.

The author holds call options on SM Energy and argues that after US strikes against Iran in response to a downed Apache helicopter, WTI should be around $120 rather than below $90. The mechanism is geopolitical supply risk pushing crude higher, which would lift SM Energy. The stated risk is that the market is not pricing in the conflict, leaving the calls underwater. Reported returns track the underlying asset, not option P&L.

The author argues the DRAM ETF, focused on South Korean memory manufacturers, will keep climbing because hundreds of billions to trillions are being spent on AI and South Korean workers are reaping enormous benefits from selling expensive memory components. The mechanism is that as long as US individuals and companies keep spending on AI, the memory cash cow won't stop. The author acknowledges counterarguments that SOXX offers broader semiconductor exposure and that owning Micron directly avoids currency and time-zone issues, but counters that DRAM has skyrocketed the most.