u/MaleficentBus1863

The author argues AMD's stock has only partially reacted to positives like Astra (GPT-6) and Intel raising CPU prices +10% after +48% ASP increases this year, and that many further developments remain ignored. Cited catalysts include the CFO's comments that Helios is already seeking more supply, CPU TAM expanding to $230B, Anthropic, Humain, Naver, Tata, G42, French Sovereign AI, CoWoS passing Broadcom after channel checks, Google TPUv10, TensorWave, Dell server CPU commentary, and Palo Alto Networks' claim that $1T of old infrastructure cannot handle AI attacks. The mechanism is that these cumulative CPU/AI demand drivers will eventually overwhelm and re-rate AMD, with the author noting INTC up 9% and AMD up 5.9% while NVDA fell 2% as evidence the move was CPU-driven. The main risk implied is that the market continues to ignore these developments, delaying the expected re-rating.

The author expects Oracle's earnings to be good, reasoning that expectations are extremely low given widening CDS spreads and market chatter about bankruptcy and liquidity issues. The mechanism is a low bar for results to beat, with the earnings release as the immediate catalyst. The main risk implied is that the negative credit-market signals prove justified.