u/GanacheNegative1988

AMD management states its data center business is expected to double next year, with the MI450/Helios GPU ramp starting in Q3 and stepping up significantly in Q4 and Q1 2027, backed by multi-gigawatt multi-generational engagements with Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The server CPU business is supply-constrained but expected to grow over 80% year-over-year in H2 and over 70% next year, driven by agentic AI demand, with AMD targeting 50% of a $220B server CPU TAM by 2030. Gross margin on MI450 is below corporate average, but server CPU, embedded recovery, and gaming mix are cited as offsetting tailwinds. Main stated risk is tight supply across wafers, HBM, and advanced packaging limiting upside.

The author likes Oracle for the long term, expecting the stock to remain choppy until the company starts showing returns on its OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) build-out. The thesis is that market doubt about Oracle's ability to capture cloud demand is fading, which should support the stock over time. The main risk is that OCI returns may take longer than expected to materialize.

AMD's CFO states TSMC will remain AMD's primary wafer supplier for the foreseeable future, citing a long strategic partnership including co-developed technology and 3D packaging. AMD is diversifying geographically with a TSMC fab in Arizona. The main risk noted is that AMD evaluates all vendors for advanced packaging and wafers, but the TSMC relationship is described as significant and long-lasting.