Michael A. Arouet

Alpha Score — Alpha Score combines three things: realized average return, confidence in the sample size, idea volume, and speaker reputation. Speakers with only a few calls are pulled closer to the platform average; speakers with many evaluated ideas keep more of their own return. Reputation only boosts: 5.0 or lower is neutral, while scores above 5 add weight. Scores are normalized to 0-100; 100 is best. Read the FAQ
Twitter Macro Analyst
@MichaelAArouet · tracked since Dec 2025
Follow Add thesis Twitter
Ideas 3
Long / short 3 L/0 S
Win rate 33%
Tracked posts 854 5.37/day
Avg return -11.1%
Long return -11.1%
Short return -
New ideas 0 last 30d
Most mentioned
Best trades
Worst trades

Pick return distribution

Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-

Average returns

first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days 3 eval.
-4.7%
L -4.7% S -
Win rate 0%
30 days 4 eval.
-1.7%
L -1.7% S -
Win rate 50%
90 days 3 eval.
-27.5%
L -27.5% S -
Win rate 0%
Closed-window returns from the first opened position per ticker/side. 90d = picks opened 90+ days ago
Result
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
BTC
Long
Crypto
$89293.40
-8.8%
1. THE FACT: Politicians need inflation to inflate away new debt used to buy votes, and this trend will continue. 2. THE BRIDGE: Persistent and increasing inflation implies a need for assets that act as a hedge against inflation. 3. THE VERDICT: Long inflation hedges due to ongoing political need for inflation.
Dec 07
TWITTER
EPP
Long
Macro
$51.25
+3.6%
1. THE FACT: Poland's GDP (current prices) grew from $256 billion in 2004 to $1,000 billion in 2025, while Greece's grew from $234 billion to $260 billion in the same period. 2. THE BRIDGE: This significant outperformance in GDP growth suggests strong underlying economic fundamentals and potential for continued growth in Poland compared to Greece. 3. THE VERDICT: Long Poland ETFs due to superior historical and projected GDP growth compared to Greece.
Dec 24
TWITTER
ETH
Long
Crypto
$3195.63
-28.1%
1. THE FACT: Investors are hedging against debasement with crypto. 2. THE BRIDGE: This indicates a growing demand for cryptocurrencies as a store of value in an environment of perceived currency debasement. 3. THE VERDICT: Long crypto as a hedge against currency debasement.
Dec 11
TWITTER
Showing 3 of 3 picks · sorted by mentions