Calls
1
Jamie Leverton
CEO, Reserve One
Win Rate
0.0%
return
-3.1%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 26
$68299.10
-3.1%
The speaker stated the Bitcoin four-year cycle is "dead," arguing the supply shock from halvings is now minimal given 20M+ BTC are in circulation, and she expects BTC to test new highs by the end of 2026. With the core historical price driver (halving supply shock) diminished, the market must transition to being driven by structural demand factors like institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. The expectation of new highs within the year, against the consensus cycle timeline, presents a long-term bullish view based on structural growth rather than cyclical patterns. If the price remains range-bound for another 6-12 months, it would indicate the traditional four-year cycle is still intact, invalidating this thesis.
The speaker stated the Bitcoin four-year cycle is "dead," arguing the supply shock from halvings is now minimal given 20M+ BTC are in circulation, and she expects BTC to test new highs by the end of 2026. With the core historical price driver (halving supply shock) diminished, the market must transition to being driven by structural demand factors like institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. The expectation of new highs within the year, against the consensus cycle timeline, presents a long-term bullish view based on structural growth rather than cyclical patterns. If the price remains range-bound for another 6-12 months, it would indicate the traditional four-year cycle is still intact, invalidating this thesis.
Crypto Assets
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Jamie Leverton has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since March 2026. Most covered: BTC.
