Dave Ricks

Lilly's GLP-1/GIP franchise anchors the bull case: tirzepatide became the best-selling drug in the world in Q2 2025 with $8.1B of quarterly revenue growing about 80%, roughly 20 million people take prescription GLP-1s globally, and an oral GLP-1 pill arrives next year. Because pharma franchises go to zero at patent expiry (Mounjaro in the 2030s), Lilly reinvests rather than simply returning cash: 25% of sales (about $14.2B this year) goes to organic R&D with ~4,200 PhD scientists; six US injectable-manufacturing plants are under construction with four more to be announced within six months, making Lilly a net exporter with a capital-intensive supply chain that is hard for rivals to replicate unless a Chinese state-owned enterprise enters; and external innovation is tucked in with a deal roughly every two weeks, including a gene therapy company bought in June.