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Feb 18
|
|
—
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SHORT
|
Adam Vincent
Bloomberg
|
Vincent notes that "Europe's previous weakness is lack of exposure to I.T. is now acting as a strength." He highlights that the FTSE 100 ("The Footsie") and European stocks are near record highs because they offer "cyclical, commodity exposure, [and] a strong financial sector." Conversely, "software stocks coming under pressure continues to be a theme" due to fears over AI displacement and CapEx efficacy. Investors are actively rotating capital. They are fleeing the uncertainty of the "AI Displacement" narrative in the US (specifically software/growth) and seeking safety in the "Old Economy" composition of European and UK indices. The lack of tech in Europe protects these indices from the current tech-centric volatility. LONG European/UK Indices (Cyclicals/Financials) and SHORT/AVOID US Software/Growth Tech to play this rotation. A sudden positive shock in AI productivity data or a reversal in US tech sentiment could unwind this rotation rapidly. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Displacement to Remain a Headwind for US S...
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|
Feb 17
|
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—
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LONG
|
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
|
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability. |
The Compound News
“Unrealized” Capital Gains Tax is Economic Su...
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|
Feb 17
|
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—
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LONG
|
Dan
Morgan Stanley Analyst
|
The speaker explicitly states, "Stick with the international trade... whereas the AI centric optimism has now ceded to concern, that's obviously benefiting international." He also cites "policy and fiscal tailwinds helping Japan, helping Latin America." As the "AI trade" in the US becomes crowded and faces skepticism (disruption fears), capital is rotating into undervalued markets. Europe and Japan offer a "valuation discount" combined with new fiscal catalysts that were previously absent, making them the primary beneficiaries of the US tech pause. LONG International markets as the momentum baton passes from US Tech to global value/cyclicals. Global recession or a resurgence of US exceptionalism driving the dollar higher. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Dip as AI Doubts Linger on Wall S...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"I at this moment have zero stock exposure... And we are about to change that brother... what's going to come out of this to me feels like deep deep deep prosperity... It is the absolute unequivocable roaring 20s." The speaker believes the productivity gains from AI (billion-dollar exits by single individuals in 60 days) will trigger a massive economic boom. He is explicitly pivoting from cash to equities to capture this "renaissance." LONG the broader market to capture the economic expansion driven by AI productivity. Short-term market volatility or a "sell the news" event if the productivity gains take longer to materialize in GDP. |
Thread Guy
Why AI Is Taking Over ALL Coding Jobs..
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|
Feb 17
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|
—
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LONG
|
CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator
|
"January's results point to stabilization rather than ongoing major drag from the prior shutdown." The bear case relied on the "lagged effects" of the government shutdown and 2025 data revisions causing a recession. The speaker confirms the labor market is resilient (Unemployment down to 4.3%, Participation up). Stabilization supports broad equity valuations. Risk-on for the broader market as recession fears recede. Inflation re-accelerating due to a tight labor market. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Present...
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|
Feb 17
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—
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LONG
|
Adam
Market Strategist / Guest
|
"The Warsh case is a high productivity equals low, inflation equals lower rates... looking for these comments today to see if other FOMC officials on board with that view." If the Fed adopts the view that AI/productivity improvements are deflationary, they can cut rates even with strong growth. This "Goldilocks" scenario (Growth + Low Rates) is the ideal environment for equity valuations. LONG US Equities if Fed rhetoric aligns with the productivity thesis. Productivity gains fail to materialize, or inflation remains sticky, forcing rates higher. |
Bloomberg Markets
UK Jobs Data Gives Green Light to March BOE C...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
|
Sebastien Page
CIO & Head of Global Multi-Asset, T. Rowe Price
|
T. Rowe Price is "barbelling" exposure. They note US Small Caps need rate cuts to perform, and they see a breakdown in correlation where Asia/Non-US markets are outperforming due to better valuations. With the US market concentrated and facing "AI Scare" volatility, capital is seeking diversification. Non-US Value and Small Caps (if the Fed cuts rates as implied by the "risk-off" bond bid) offer the best risk/reward for rotation. LONG Small Caps and International Value as a diversification play against US Tech concentration. Fed keeps rates higher for longer; global growth slows. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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Feb 14
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$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
SHORT
|
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101
|
"This past week, we saw the S&P 500 lose the 50-day moving average... I'm getting the sense just a guess that we we probably have to test the 200 day moving average around 6500." Technical momentum is broken. Fundamentally, while AI boosts margins initially (by firing people), the secondary effect is "demand negative" (unemployed people don't buy things). If aggregate demand shrinks, corporate revenues eventually fall, leading to lower stock prices. Short/Underweight Equities due to technical breakdown and macro headwinds. The market ignores macro data and continues to bid up tech stocks on hype; the 200-day moving average holds as support. |
Joseph Wang
Markets Weekly February 14, 2026
|
|
Feb 14
|
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$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
SHORT
|
chumba
Substack author, The Cookie Chumbles
|
"Odds of downside actualizing are elevated" for equities, driven by risks to employment flows (401k buying), Fed liquidity, and AI-driven labor displacement. "Retail participation in stocks all time highs. Cash levels all time lows." The combination of macro headwinds (Fed tightening, de-globalization), structural shifts (AI's impact on employment and corporate FCF), and extreme bullish sentiment creates a high probability of a broad market correction or bear market. 3. |
The Cookie Chumbles
Doomer or Boomer
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
SHORT
|
Mike McGlone
Senior Macro Strategist (Implied Role based on context)
|
"We're seeing now with 180 day volatility the S&P 500 running near an eight year low risk... So we get a little bit normalization, stock market volatility as we run into the year." The speaker uses volatility as a contrarian indicator. Extremely low volatility suggests complacency. A return to "normalization" implies a drop in prices and a spike in the VIX. Since he views industrial metals and Bitcoin as dependent on the S&P 500 ("Baidu" likely a transcription error for "Beta" or the broader market context), the root trade is a correction in US Equities. Short the S&P 500 as volatility mean-reverts higher. Continued "melt-up" scenario where volatility remains suppressed despite macro headwinds. |
Bloomberg Markets
Aluminum Drops as Trump Moves to Narrow Levie...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Stocks were negative prior to the release but the number was "very tame." Real earnings also rose 0.5%. The absence of an "upside surprise" (which plagued previous Januaries) combined with falling yields reduces the discount rate for equities and supports valuations. A resilient consumer (real earnings up) prevents a recessionary bear case. LONG equities as the "soft landing" probability increases. Economic growth slows significantly (recession) rather than just inflation cooling. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
David Solomon
Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs
|
"The macro setup is quite good... you have this combination of strong fiscal stimulus... capital investment surge around AI... huge deregulatory swing." Solomon outlines a "constructive environment" with three major tailwinds (Stimulus, AI Capex, Deregulation) and forecasts 2.9% real GDP growth. This combination historically drives equity market performance. LONG US equities to capture the forecasted growth and favorable policy environment. Inflation reigniting due to stimulus; failure of AI capex to generate returns. |
CNBC
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: The macro se...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
WATCH
|
Ryan Detrick
Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group
|
"We're in February. Historically February is... that banana peel type of month... Maybe we're due for a little banana peel slip here. You know, 5% or so." The market is overextended (up 9 months in a row). A 5% tactical correction is healthy and expected. Investors should not panic sell but rather wait for this dip to deploy cash, as the underlying bull market remains intact. WATCH. Wait for the ~5% pullback to initiate new long positions. The "slip" turns into a deeper correction if macro data (CPI) deteriorates significantly. |
CNBC
Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech p...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Unnamed Analyst
Political Commentator
|
"The numbers... are a little bit better than what economists expected... better news there overall for the markets." Softer-than-expected headline inflation data generally reduces fears of hawkish monetary policy, providing a tailwind for broad equity markets. LONG. The speaker explicitly characterizes the report as "better news" for the markets. Core CPI rising 0.3% suggests services inflation remains sticky ("not getting a whole lot of progress"), which could cap market enthusiasm. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Core CPI Rises in January on Firmer Servic...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$6836
$6881
+0.7%
|
WATCH
|
—
|
Fed pricing has been "wobbling," and payrolls were confusing. The speaker warns that if we get high inflation (CPI) on top of this, it will be difficult to convince the FOMC to cut rates. The current valuation of the S&P 500 and US Bonds is predicated on rate cuts occurring this year. A hot CPI print removes the liquidity support, causing a repricing event in both equities and fixed income. WATCH/AVOID US broad indices and Treasuries until the inflation trajectory is clear; a high print is bearish for both. Inflation cools faster than expected, sparking a rally in US assets (reversal of the current fear). |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Peter Navarro
Senior Counsel on Trade and Manufacturing (Trump Adviser)
|
Navarro cites "strategic energy dominance," "deregulation," and "tax cuts" as the drivers for his prediction of "50,000 on the Dow." The administration is prioritizing fossil fuel expansion and reducing regulatory burdens. This macro environment disproportionately benefits traditional energy sectors (XLE) and industrial heavyweights found in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. LONG US cyclical and energy assets based on policy support. Inflation reigniting due to tariffs; trade wars slowing global growth. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Adviser Navarro on the Attack Against D...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Ty Cobb
Former Special Counsel to President Trump
|
Cobb describes the current environment as "open warfare against our institutions" and claims the administration has "eviscerated the rule of law." Institutional stability and the rule of law are foundational premiums for US equity markets. If the Department of Justice and Commerce Department are perceived as compromised or unstable (as Cobb implies regarding Bondi and Lutnick), it introduces a "political risk" discount to US assets that is not currently priced in. WATCH. Monitor for volatility if high-level resignations (like Lutnick) occur or if institutional erosion leads to credit rating downgrades. Markets may ignore political rhetoric if corporate earnings remain strong. |
Bloomberg Markets
Pam Bondi Doesn't Care About Epstein Victims:...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." "‘26 will bring a more positive environment." Small-cap companies are often more domestically focused and highly sensitive to the health of the US economy and its labor market. A strengthening US economy, driven by job growth and rising incomes, provides a strong tailwind for small-cap earnings and valuations. LONG Small-Cap US Equities (e.g., IWM ETF for Russell 2000) on the back of an improving domestic economic outlook and labor market strength. Economic recovery falters; higher interest rates disproportionately impact smaller, often more leveraged, companies; broader market downturn. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$6832
$6881
+0.7%
|
SHORT
|
MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
|
"I still kind of think we see a little bit of an equity shock in the coming weeks on some of this kind of wealth damage... and portfolio damage." The speaker cites anxiety around "assassination" (likely specific news event) and the Real Estate sector as catalysts for a near-term drawdown. They explicitly state AI is "farther down the line" and won't save the market immediately. Short S&P 500 INDEX and REAL ESTATE for a tactical correction. AI hype cycle accelerates faster than expected, overriding macro headwinds. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minu...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$6832
$6881
+0.7%
|
LONG
|
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"Gold is now bigger than the stock market... I think the market's going to have to start to give a higher P E to the equity market, just in the same way that gold's being rerat[ed]." Gold has rallied massively as a "store of value," yet it produces no cash flow. Equities have demonstrated resilience through six "Black Swan" events and are showing accelerating earnings growth. If the market accepts a higher valuation for Gold, logic dictates it must also expand the multiple (P/E) for Equities, which offer both store of value properties *and* growth. LONG. Lee views the high valuation not as a ceiling, but as a midpoint in a repricing event alongside Gold. A resurgence in inflation (CPI data) could force the Fed to abandon its dovish stance, breaking the valuation support. |
CNBC
Tom Lee: If Gold can rerate higher, then so c...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
$6941
$6881
-0.9%
|
LONG
|
Rick Santelli
Reporter
|
January jobs came in at 130k (vs 55k expected), and Santelli argues the "neutral" number needed to keep unemployment stable is now only 50k. Despite political negativity and revisions, the labor market remains robust enough to support growth. Global GDP is ramping up, and the US is leading this acceleration. "Jump in the markets" – ignore the naysayers. Downward revisions to data continue; inflation reignites. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: January’s jobs picture & AI disru...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Claudia Sahm
Economist, Federal Reserve Board
|
Sahm notes the -900k/-1M revisions were "not a surprise to the Fed" as preliminary data was known in September. She characterizes the recent January data as "the best possible outcome" with payrolls lifting and unemployment ticking down. The market's fear was that the massive downward revisions indicated the Fed was "behind the curve" on a crashing economy. Sahm clarifies that this is old news and the current data shows stabilization. If the economy is cooling (slowing wages) but not collapsing (positive payrolls), the "Soft Landing" narrative holds. This removes the immediate recession tail-risk, favoring broad equity exposure. LONG. The data supports a Goldilocks scenario where the Fed can cut rates gradually into a stable economy. If the "gradual drift up" in unemployment accelerates into a nonlinear spike (triggering the Sahm Rule for real). |
Bloomberg Markets
What the US Jobs report means for the Fed
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
$6941
$6881
-0.9%
|
LONG
|
Senator Markwayne Mullin
Republican Senator from Oklahoma
|
"This isn't a full government shutdown. In fact, 97% of the government is fully funded... I think what's likely to happen is that we do a continuing resolution once again." Mainstream headlines are signaling a crisis. However, the actual economic impact is negligible (only 3% of gov unfunded) and a political resolution (CR) is imminent due to scheduled congressional travel (Munich). LONG. Fade the "shutdown" volatility; the macro impact is non-existent. The CR fails to pass, causing short-term sentiment shock. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
$6941
$6881
-0.9%
|
LONG
|
Enda Curran
Market Analyst / Guest
|
"It's a very strong number... 130,000 on a month... unemployment rate falling as well... suggests a healthier jobs market [than] a lot of people were expecting." The macro narrative of a crumbling labor market is refuted by this data. With the negative benchmark revisions (-800k) already "baked in" and the current data (January) showing unexpected strength and private sector growth, the "Recession" trade is off the table for now. This supports risk assets. LONG. The economy is stabilizing, supporting corporate earnings. If the Fed interprets "stronger than expected" data as a reason to keep interest rates restrictive for longer, valuation multiples could compress. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130,000 Jobs in January, Unemployment...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
$6964
$6881
-1.2%
|
LONG
|
Sam Stovall
Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA
|
Stovall expects the market to be supported by a potential Fed rate cut at the June meeting. The "bad news is good news" dynamic is in play. Stovall anticipates weak economic data—specifically a low payroll number (around 55k) and declining year-over-year CPI. This economic softening would pressure the Fed to cut rates, which lowers borrowing costs and typically boosts stock valuations. Expectations of Q4 GDP (cited between 4.2% and 5.4%) combined with anticipated declines in headline and core CPI. If inflation remains sticky or economic data comes in too hot, the Fed may delay rate cuts, hurting asset prices. |
CNBC
Expectation of Fed rate cut in June will supp...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Kevin Hassett
Director, White House National Economic Council
|
The economy is in a "productivity boom" similar to the 1990s. AI allows companies to maintain or increase output with fewer employees (lower costs). When productivity rises, profit margins expand. Since profits are the "mother's milk of stocks," this supports a continued rally in equity valuations. Software engineer productivity has increased 50-80% in the last year; GDP growth is tracking at 3-4%. If the labor market contracts too sharply (mass unemployment due to AI) before new roles are created, consumer spending could collapse. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with White House ...
|
|
Feb 08
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
Bob Elliott states he has "positioned for Easy Street ahead" and simplified his thematic trade to "stocks vs US bonds." "Easy Street ahead" implies a positive outlook for risk assets, specifically US equities, relative to the more conservative US bond market. This suggests a belief in continued economic growth or a benign environment for equity performance where equities outperform fixed income. Overweight US equities and underweight US bonds in a portfolio, or consider a long equity / short bond pair trade using broad market ETFs (e.g., SPY/VOO vs. TLT/AGG). Unexpected economic downturn, significant rise in interest rates, or a flight to safety that boosts bond prices. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08
|
|
Feb 06
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Richard Bernstein
CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors
|
Bernstein argues that while US earnings growth is leveling off, profit cycles outside the US are actually accelerating. Investors are currently overpaying for US growth. He posits a simple choice: If you can buy 20% growth for 40x earnings (in the US) or 20% growth for 20x earnings (International), the cheaper option is mathematically superior. Additionally, US investors are severely underweight in this asset class (holding <10% allocation in a sector that represents 35-40% of the global market). Non-US markets offer accelerating earnings cycles compared to the US plateau. A strengthening US Dollar could act as a headwind, though Bernstein believes the Fed cutting rates into strong GDP will likely weaken the dollar, boosting foreign returns. |
CNBC
Market broadening is very healthy, says Richa...
|
|
Feb 01
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
US stocks are "only up a little over 1% for the month," lagging other financial assets, despite a "significant surge in hard data, and clear bottoming in soft data" indicating a pickup in US economic conditions. The author states, "the case for stocks is building." If the improving US economic conditions continue to strengthen, US equities, currently undervalued relative to this backdrop and other surging assets, are likely to experience a catch-up rally or relative outperformance. LONG US Equities (e.g., via broad market ETFs like SPY or VOO) expecting them to outperform other financial assets as the underlying economic strength is increasingly priced in. A broader market correction due to the "mania" could drag down US stocks. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, or higher interest rates from persistent "debasement" could negatively impact valuations. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
|
|
Jan 31
|
|
$6939
$6881
-0.8%
|
LONG
|
David Fagan
Guest
|
Captures the 4% of stocks that generate all market wealth; 90% of managers fail to beat it. |
We Study Billionaires
Why Simple Investing Wins w/ David Fagan (TIP...
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"The big US open equity sale... dragged down nearly every risky asset market... To me it looks like something to fade rather than follow." US equities are a primary component of the broad speculative mania. The author's call to fade the dip applies directly to them, indicating vulnerability to further unwinding of speculation. Short US equities (e.g., S&P 500 futures or ETFs) or avoid long positions, anticipating a potential reversal of the speculative rally. Strong corporate earnings, continued retail/institutional speculative inflows, or a dovish shift in Fed expectations could drive further gains. |
Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps
|