AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Presented by CME Group
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 17, 2026 at 17:07 UTC  |  1:00  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
CME Group Presenter — Market Commentator

Summary

  • January Non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%.
  • The "AI Job Freeze" narrative is debunked; corporate layoffs are characterized as resource reallocation toward AI rather than net destruction.
  • Construction jobs saw a significant uptick (+33,000), explicitly attributed to AI-driven demand (likely data center infrastructure).
  • Despite downward revisions to 2025 data caused by the government shutdown, the macro backdrop signals stabilization rather than a recessionary drag.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
CONSTRUCTION /CAT /NUE
LONG CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator 		"AI appears to be boosting construction jobs, as there was a 33,000 uptick in construction jobs." The speaker explicitly links the construction boom to AI. This implies massive capital expenditure on physical infrastructure (Data Centers, Power Grids) is trickling down to the labor market. If jobs are growing here, the demand for heavy machinery (Caterpillar) and raw materials (Nucor/Steel) remains robust. Long the physical infrastructure enablers of the AI revolution. High interest rates slowing down project financing; supply chain bottlenecks. 0:34
AI SECTOR /NVDA /MSFT
LONG CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator 		"Corporations have announced layoffs, but much of that impact has been viewed as shifting of positions and redirecting resources elsewhere." The market feared an "AI Job Freeze" (stagnation). The data proves companies are not shrinking; they are pivoting. "Redirecting resources" means cutting legacy costs to buy more GPU compute and AI software. This confirms the Capex Supercycle is still active. Bullish for the primary beneficiaries of this resource redirection (Hardware and Hyperscalers). Disappointment in AI ROI leading to a pause in corporate spending. —
US EQUITIES /SPY
LONG CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator 		"January's results point to stabilization rather than ongoing major drag from the prior shutdown." The bear case relied on the "lagged effects" of the government shutdown and 2025 data revisions causing a recession. The speaker confirms the labor market is resilient (Unemployment down to 4.3%, Participation up). Stabilization supports broad equity valuations. Risk-on for the broader market as recession fears recede. Inflation re-accelerating due to a tight labor market. —