Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: Not sure what the Democrats' endgame is

Speakers

Senator Markwayne Mullin — Republican Senator from Oklahoma

Summary

Shutdown Risk Overblown: Senator Mullin clarifies that 97% of the federal government (11 appropriation bills) is already fully funded. The current dispute only affects the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), representing roughly 3% of appropriations.
ICE Funding Secured: Contrary to typical shutdown fears regarding border enforcement, ICE and Border Patrol agents are fully funded for four years due to prior legislation.
Prediction: A Continuing Resolution (CR) is highly likely to pass by Friday, driven by the logistical necessity of 30 Democrats scheduled to travel to Munich for a delegation.
Security Anomalies: Acknowledges the unusual 10-day closure of the El Paso airport for "special security reasons" but lacks specific briefing details.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
GEO /CXW	LONG	Senator Markwayne Mullin Republican Senator from Oklahoma	"The ICE and Border Patrol agents were fully funded for... four years with a one big, beautiful bill." Private prison and detention center operators (GEO, CXW) rely heavily on ICE contracts. The market often punishes these stocks during "government shutdown" headlines due to payment fears. Mullin confirms their specific funding source is locked in for years, insulating them from the current DHS budget fight. LONG. The revenue stream is secure regardless of the Friday deadline; sell-offs based on shutdown fears are mispriced. unexpected legislative changes to the 4-year funding bill; broader ESG divestment trends.	—
US EQUITIES /S&P 500	LONG	Senator Markwayne Mullin Republican Senator from Oklahoma	"This isn't a full government shutdown. In fact, 97% of the government is fully funded... I think what's likely to happen is that we do a continuing resolution once again." Mainstream headlines are signaling a crisis. However, the actual economic impact is negligible (only 3% of gov unfunded) and a political resolution (CR) is imminent due to scheduled congressional travel (Munich). LONG. Fade the "shutdown" volatility; the macro impact is non-existent. The CR fails to pass, causing short-term sentiment shock.	—
US TRAVEL SECTOR	WATCH	Senator Markwayne Mullin Republican Senator from Oklahoma	"The only thing that the Democrats have shut down right now is our TSA agents... when people started to see those delays at the airport, they really get fed up." While 97% of the government is safe, TSA falls into the 3% "unfunded" bucket. If the CR fails, TSA agents may stage "sick-outs" (as seen in previous shutdowns), causing immediate friction for airlines and travel stocks. Additionally, the unexplained 10-day closure of the El Paso airport adds a layer of idiosyncratic security risk. WATCH. Monitor the Friday deadline closely; if the CR stalls, expect immediate turbulence in airline bookings/operations. CR passes immediately, negating the thesis.	—