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Feb 18
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—
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AVOID
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Steven Fulip
Partnership for New York City President and CEO
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NYC Mayor is threatening a property tax hike if a wealth tax isn't passed. Fulip notes this would push NYC corporate taxes to ~22% compared to 11% in neighboring New Jersey. The tax disparity creates a "trip wire" for businesses. Fulip highlights that JPMorgan (JPM) now has more employees in Texas than in NYC, signaling a structural shift of business operations away from the city due to fiscal policy. Avoid NYC-centric real estate and commercial exposure as the tax burden threatens to drive further corporate exodus. The Governor (Hochul) may block the tax proposals, maintaining the status quo. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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$43.35
$43.35
-0.0%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Why More Investors Are Leaning Into Private M...
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Feb 18
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—
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SHORT
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Joe Mathieu
Host, Bloomberg Radio
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NYC Mayor is proposing a significant increase in property taxes on "high income earners and businesses" to close a budget gap. Increasing carrying costs for commercial and high-end residential real estate in a city already struggling with occupancy (commercial) and migration (residential) will further depress asset values and net operating income (NOI) for landlords. SHORT. Fiscal desperation leads to policy errors that hurt asset prices. Proposal fails to pass in state legislature; federal bailout/assistance. |
Bloomberg Markets
Partial Shutdown Drags on Over DHS Funding | ...
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Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence...
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Feb 17
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—
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WATCH
|
Narrator
Financial Reporter
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"Real estate stocks are selling off as investors think that this could be the next place that's going to get hit." Second-order effect of AI efficiency. If AI renders "countless businesses obsolete" or drastically reduces headcount needs in legal/finance/admin, the demand for commercial office space plummets further. Additionally, AI in property management could disrupt service margins. WATCH (Negative Bias). Sentiment is shifting against physical asset classes tied to white-collar labor. Interest rate cuts could buoy the sector regardless of the AI narrative. |
Bloomberg Markets
Are AI Fears Triggering a Stock Market Doom L...
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Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
The housing market really needs these 3 catal...
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|
Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Higher Late A...
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|
Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Rise Tuesday ...
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Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Extra Spa...
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Feb 17
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—
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WATCH
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Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop
|
"We're seeing some of the AI companies start to take serious space out in San Francisco and there's a very significant bid on San Francisco office today where 18 months ago there was no bid." The "Office is Dead" narrative is fracturing. AI clusters are creating localized demand shocks in previously abandoned markets like SF, suggesting a bottom may be in for specific high-quality assets. Watch for distressed entry points in office REITs with West Coast exposure. Delinquencies are still at 12.3%; broader office market remains broken outside of AI hubs. |
CNBC
Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conf...
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Feb 17
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$43.94
$43.35
-1.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price f...
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Feb 15
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—
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AVOID
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Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
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Krugman highlights that US net migration may have turned negative. He cites the "accelerator principle," stating that investment demand depends on the *growth* of the population. "If the working age population is shrinking then you don't need a lot more office buildings." A stagnating or shrinking workforce destroys the fundamental demand for new physical space (offices/housing). Without population growth, the vacancy rates in commercial real estate cannot be absorbed. AVOID Commercial Real Estate and Office REITs. A sudden reversal in immigration policy or a productivity boom that increases space requirements per worker. |
Monetary Matters
“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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Kyle Grieve
Host, The Investor's Podcast / Millennial Investing
|
"You need to keep your savings in appreciating assets... stocks... bonds, real estate, commodities, private businesses, cryptocurrencies." To combat the "silent tax" of inflation, investors must own assets that are "tied to real economic activity" or possess scarcity. Diversify into hard and productive assets to maintain and grow purchasing power. Asset bubbles, high interest rates depressing asset prices, or specific sector risks. |
We Study Billionaires
Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor w/ Kyl...
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Feb 14
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—
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SHORT
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Luigi de Vecchi
Chairman, Capital Markets, Citigroup EMEA
|
Landesberg notes a "shift towards Milan even before the [UK] non-dom thing was really fully announced." De Vecchi adds that people are moving out of London and Paris due to tax and stability concerns. The UK's removal of the non-dom tax status is acting as a push factor, causing capital flight. As HNWIs relocate their tax residency to Italy, liquidity drains from the London prime property and equity markets. SHORT. London loses its premium status as the default European hub for global capital. Reversal of UK tax policies or a sudden hike in Italian flat tax rates (elections next year). |
Bloomberg Markets
Why The Ultra Rich Are Moving to Milan
|
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
|
Katie Greifeld
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
Treasury yields dropped significantly after the CPI print (10-year down ~15bps this week). The Russell 2000 (Small Caps) outperformed (+1.2%), and sectors like Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials led the market. Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the attractiveness of dividend-yielding sectors. Small caps (IWM) are disproportionately sensitive to rates due to floating-rate debt; as yields fall, their balance sheet pressure eases, prompting capital rotation out of expensive tech and into these value/cyclical pockets. LONG exposure to rate-sensitive sectors and small caps as the "yield relief" trade gains traction. Re-acceleration of inflation causing yields to spike back up. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Steady as Treasury Yields Slip After C...
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Feb 13
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—
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SHORT
|
CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator
|
"If rate hikes happen, Japanese financials win from wider margins while real estate... face pressure from higher borrowing costs." This is a classic rate-cycle rotation. Banks benefit immediately from the ability to charge higher interest (Net Interest Margin expansion), while Real Estate (a highly levered sector) suffers from increased cost of capital. LONG Financials and SHORT Real Estate to play the divergence caused by the BoJ's normalization policy. The BoJ pauses hikes unexpectedly, or the economy slows down so much that loan demand collapses. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Saurabh
Secretary of the Statistics Ministry, India
|
"We increase the weightage for housing, which is great representative of the higher rents that we all pay... utilities like water, electricity." The increased weighting of housing in the CPI basket acknowledges that urbanization and housing costs are becoming a larger chunk of the Indian wallet. This signals robust demand for residential real estate and the construction materials required to build it. LONG. Higher interest rates (if inflation spikes) could dampen mortgage demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
India’s New Inflation Basket Explains India’s...
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Feb 13
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—
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WATCH
|
Michelle Kwok
Head of Asia Real Estate Research, HSBC
|
Secondary home listings have declined, and transaction volumes in key cities like Shanghai are stabilizing. A potential 80 billion RMB rescue package for Vanke is reported. If the Vanke package goes through, it benefits quality private developers by lowering offshore funding costs. 2026 is viewed as an inflection point where policy support finally stabilizes the market. WATCH. Look for sustained sales data in the "Spring Season" (March) to confirm the recovery before entering. If the Vanke rescue fails, they may face debt restructuring, though HSBC views this as idiosyncratic. |
Bloomberg Markets
Chinese Stocks Can't Wait for Holiday Break, ...
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|
Feb 13
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—
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SHORT
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Annabel Drillers
Asia Tech Correspondent, Bloomberg
|
A small company, Algorithm Holdings, claimed 300-400% efficiency gains using AI, sparking a sell-off in the Russell 3000 trucking index (e.g., Landstar System). Commercial real estate (CBRE) and SaaS stocks are also being sold indiscriminately. The market narrative has shifted from "Who wins from AI?" to "Who is displaced by AI?" Investors are pricing in "zero or negative growth" for sectors where AI agents can replace human headcount (reducing office demand) or seat-based software licenses. SHORT sectors vulnerable to AI deflationary pressure. The sell-off is described as "indiscriminate" and potentially exaggerated, leaving room for a sharp mean-reversion rally if earnings hold up. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI Is Proving to Be a Double-Edged Sword ...
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Feb 13
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—
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SHORT
|
Sheldon McLeod
Market Strategist
|
The "AI Scare Trade" has spread beyond tech into Logistics and Commercial Real Estate. The speaker notes that logistics firms rely on pricing inefficiencies and human error for margins. AI eliminates these inefficiencies. If logistics clients use AI to optimize truckloads and routes, they will no longer pay for the "inefficiencies" that previously padded the margins of logistics giants. Similarly, AI reduces the need for office labor, crushing demand for commercial space. SHORT. The market is repricing these sectors as "AI Losers" due to permanent deflationary pressure on their pricing power. The selloff may be an overreaction/panic selling before actual earnings erosion occurs. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Angst Rocks Asia Markets | The Asia Trade ...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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AVOID
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Ryan Serhant
Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate
|
"January sales... dropped 8.4% from December... Homeowners now move once every nearly nine years." Companies like Zillow or brokerages depend on *transaction volume*, not just asset prices. A "stalemate" with an 8.4% drop in sales volume directly correlates to a drop in revenue for listing platforms and agents. High equity helps the homeowner, not the broker. AVOID. The "mobility crisis" is a revenue crisis for transaction-based models. A sudden drop in interest rates could unlock inventory and spike transaction volume unexpectedly. |
CNBC
Housing not in crisis but first-time buyers a...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
|
Kate Rogers
Reporter, CNBC
|
"Cuts across DC were swift and farreaching" with 300,000 employees exiting federal roles in 2025. The Washington D.C. regional economy is heavily dependent on federal employment. A permanent removal of 300,000 jobs creates structural vacancies in office real estate and reduces demand for residential housing and local services in the D.C. metro area. SHORT. Federal government might backfill roles with contractors, or private sector growth in D.C. could offset public sector losses. |
CNBC
One year after DOGE cuts, Work for America gi...
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|
Feb 12
|
|
$42.87
$43.35
+1.1%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Existing Home Sales Sink -8.4% In January
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
|
Emanuel notes that Software, Legal, and Financial professions are viewed as "most likely to be disrupted." Financials are underperforming despite the bull market. The market is pricing in existential risk for business models based on billable hours or code generation. Until these companies prove they can monetize AI rather than be replaced by it, multiples will compress. AVOID sectors in the crosshairs of the "AI Heat Seeking Missile." Oversold conditions could lead to a sharp relief rally if earnings prove resilient. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
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LONG
|
UK Government Official
Cabinet Member / Representative
|
The speaker explicitly highlights "six cuts in interest rates" and reforms to the "planning system so we can get things built again," citing a doubling of investment growth in 2025. Lower financing costs (6 rate cuts) combined with deregulation (planning reform) and forced capital flows (pension reform) create a "triple tailwind" for physical asset developers. If the government is successfully unlocking pension cash for domestic projects, the construction and real estate sectors are the direct beneficiaries of this liquidity. LONG UK-exposed construction and development assets to capture the capex cycle. The headline GDP growth remains "disappointing," suggesting the broader economy is weak; if demand falters, supply-side reforms may not be enough to sustain asset prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
Disappointing UK Growth Adds Pressure on Star...
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|
Feb 12
|
|
—
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SHORT
|
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst
|
"Commercial real estate stocks that were hit hard... potential for models being released [that disrupt the sector]." AI is viewed as a deflationary force for office demand (fewer humans needed). The market is pricing in terminal value risk for CRE similar to how it priced Kodak. Short/Avoid Commercial Real Estate. Return-to-office mandates stabilizing occupancy. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in £10B Deal | The Pu...
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|
Feb 12
|
|
$42.87
$43.35
+1.1%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - XLRE
Real Estate's Reset: Where Almanac Sees Stres...
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|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
|
"I still kind of think we see a little bit of an equity shock in the coming weeks on some of this kind of wealth damage... and portfolio damage." The speaker cites anxiety around "assassination" (likely specific news event) and the Real Estate sector as catalysts for a near-term drawdown. They explicitly state AI is "farther down the line" and won't save the market immediately. Short S&P 500 INDEX and REAL ESTATE for a tactical correction. AI hype cycle accelerates faster than expected, overriding macro headwinds. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minu...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
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SHORT
|
Ben Cline
Representative (R-VA)
|
Rep. Cline asks about the new "National Fraud Division" targeting "long-term care accountability, senior living facilities engaged in Medicaid fraud, including systemic overbilling practices." Bondi confirms the new division is "set up to help" exactly with that specific targeting. Increased federal scrutiny and a dedicated fraud division targeting Medicaid billing in senior living creates significant regulatory and reimbursement risk for nursing home operators and healthcare REITs heavily exposed to government payers. The fraud division may focus only on egregious criminal rings rather than systemic corporate billing practices. |
CNBC
Attorney General Pam Bondi testifies before H...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
—
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LONG
|
Robert Frank
Wealth Editor, CNBC
|
Zuckerberg bought a $150M home in Florida. Meta has a growing office in Miami. Robert Frank confirms other billionaires (Page, Brin) are moving family offices, private companies, and children to Florida schools. This is the "Cluster Effect." When the CEO moves, the C-suite, family offices, and philanthropic arms follow. This creates a structural tailwind for Florida's high-end real estate market and local economy, regardless of whether the specific CA tax passes. Long Florida-exposed assets (e.g., St. Joe Company or Miami-centric developers) as wealth migration accelerates. Florida real estate market saturation or climate-related insurance risks. |
CNBC
Tech titans leave California after new wealth...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
|
"New York's best quarter for office leasing in years... The facts are saying people and companies believe in New York... investing in New York, and aren't afraid." The market has priced NYC Office REITs (like SL Green or Vornado) for a "doom loop" scenario. Rechler provides proprietary data suggesting the bottom is in (leasing up, luxury sales up 30%). If the "death of NYC" narrative is wrong, these assets are severely undervalued. Contrarian Long on NYC-specific real estate exposure. Crime/Quality of life issues (mentioned regarding homeless encampments) could reverse the trend if not managed by the Mayor. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & N...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
|
Regarding the political backlash against firms like Blackstone buying homes, Rechler notes it is "marginal" and that "most of them are focused on Build-to-Rent versus buying inventory." The market fears regulation will stop institutions from owning homes. Rechler clarifies that the smart money has already pivoted to "Build-to-Rent" (BTR). This pivot aligns with the government's goal (creating new supply) rather than fighting it. This reduces regulatory risk for BTR operators and positions them to solve the supply crisis. Long BTR-focused REITs. The political headwinds are overstated, and the underlying demand for rentals remains high due to the affordability crisis preventing home ownership. Specific legislation banning bulk ownership of single-family homes, regardless of whether they are new builds or existing inventory. |
CNBC
RXR CEO Scott Rechler on housing affordabilit...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Mark Rayfield
CEO, Saint-Gobain North America
|
There is a distinct split in the office market. "A buildings are always full and the C buildings aren't." To compete, landlords must renovate Class B/C buildings into Class A environments. This isn't just about coffee machines; it requires upgrading "building science" elements like acoustics (sound-dampening walls/ceilings) and electrochromatic glass (natural light without glare/heat) to improve worker productivity and comfort. Data suggests better acoustics lead to less stress and absenteeism in schools and offices, driving demand for high-performance materials. Owners "flipping" buildings may cut corners on long-term quality upgrades. |
CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...
|
|
Feb 07
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Thomas Mueller
General Partner, Dragonfly Capital
|
Countries with lower debt-to-GDP ratios (e.g., Sweden at 35%) offer better potential for cap rate compression amid global debt concerns. |
We Study Billionaires
Most People Win the Wrong Game w/ Thomas Muel...
|
|
Feb 07
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Thomas Mueller
General Partner, Dragonfly Capital
|
High fiscal spending and sovereign indebtedness create risks of rising term premiums which negatively impact real estate valuations. |
We Study Billionaires
Most People Win the Wrong Game w/ Thomas Muel...
|