| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Becky Quick
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box |
"The Commerce Department is planning to waive some of the taxes for the so-called hyperscalers on chips that they buy from Taiwan Semiconductor." The threat of tariffs was a major overhang for TSM. If the US government admits that onshoring 40% of supply is "impossible" (as stated by Taiwan's negotiator) and grants waivers, TSM retains its pricing power and volume without the friction of trade war taxes. Bullish for TSM as it removes a geopolitical regulatory cap on their sales to US Tech Giants. The waivers are voluntary or conditional on US investment, which could drag on margins. | 4:04 | |
| LONG |
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director) |
"The regional banks... are not lending today to the regional builders. So, the regional builders are somewhat paralyzed... The top 20 home builders, they don't need regional banks, right? They got their own balance sheet." A credit crunch at the regional bank level specifically hurts small, private competitors. Large public builders (DR Horton, Lennar, Pulte) have access to capital markets (corporate bonds/stock) and cash. They will absorb the market share of the paralyzed private builders who cannot get construction loans. Long the large incumbents who can build through the credit cycle. If interest rates stay historically high for too long, demand destruction could eventually hit the large builders despite their supply-side advantage. | — | |
| AVOID |
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director) |
"They can't afford to compete with the big banks... they don't have the capacity to be able to be lenders there." Rechler, a board director at the NY Fed, is explicitly stating that the business model for regional banks is currently broken regarding commercial and construction lending. If they cannot lend, they cannot generate yield, and they lose their primary utility in the economy compared to "Too Big To Fail" banks. Avoid the sector until the yield curve normalizes or consolidation occurs. A sudden, aggressive Fed rate cut could rapidly repair regional bank balance sheets. | — | |
| LONG |
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director) |
"New York's best quarter for office leasing in years... The facts are saying people and companies believe in New York... investing in New York, and aren't afraid." The market has priced NYC Office REITs (like SL Green or Vornado) for a "doom loop" scenario. Rechler provides proprietary data suggesting the bottom is in (leasing up, luxury sales up 30%). If the "death of NYC" narrative is wrong, these assets are severely undervalued. Contrarian Long on NYC-specific real estate exposure. Crime/Quality of life issues (mentioned regarding homeless encampments) could reverse the trend if not managed by the Mayor. | — | |
| WATCH |
Becky Quick
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box |
"Alphabet tapping the US debt market to raise $20 billion... capital expenditures this year could reach up to $185 billion." This is an unprecedented level of spend. While it shows commitment to AI, it drastically reduces Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the short term. The trade here is ambiguous: it's bullish for the *suppliers* of that spend (NVDA, Energy), but potentially bearish for Google's margins if the ROI doesn't materialize quickly. Watch. The stock may struggle to appreciate if investors balk at the massive CapEx bill without immediate revenue spikes. AI becomes a commodity and the $185B spend results in margin compression. | — |