| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Justin Wheeler
CEO, Berkadia |
"We were one of the largest buyers of retail last year... going to go heavy into that [convenience-based, grocery-anchored retail]. People haven't built in a long time, so there's very little supply." Unlike multifamily which is suffering from an oversupply glut, neighborhood retail has had zero new construction. High occupancy + no competition = pricing power to push rents. Long grocery-anchored retail REITs as a defensive, cash-flowing play in 2026. Consumer spending slowdown affecting tenant solvency. | 9:59 | |
| LONG |
Justin Wheeler
CEO, Berkadia |
"There seems to be just tons of demand for it... we think that the next five years there's not an over supply situation." Despite fears of AI efficiency reducing space needs, the physical infrastructure required for compute (Hyperscalers) continues to outpace supply. Long Data Center REITs and infrastructure providers. Exit risk/valuation concerns if liquidity dries up; long-term AI efficiency reducing physical footprint. | 10:34 | |
| LONG |
Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop |
"Industrial has been sort of the darling for the last 20 years. It's still doing very well because of the growth of Amazon and online distribution." E-commerce penetration continues to drive demand for logistics and warehousing space, keeping fundamentals strong despite broader CRE wobbles. Long Industrial REITs. Slowdown in consumer goods consumption. | — | |
| LONG |
Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop |
"Today, this place [large convention hotel] is operating, I'm assuming, extremely well." Post-pandemic recovery in group travel and conventions has fully materialized, restoring profitability to large-scale hospitality assets. Long major hospitality chains/REITs focused on business and convention travel. Corporate travel budget cuts in a recession. | — | |
| WATCH |
Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop |
"We're seeing some of the AI companies start to take serious space out in San Francisco and there's a very significant bid on San Francisco office today where 18 months ago there was no bid." The "Office is Dead" narrative is fracturing. AI clusters are creating localized demand shocks in previously abandoned markets like SF, suggesting a bottom may be in for specific high-quality assets. Watch for distressed entry points in office REITs with West Coast exposure. Delinquencies are still at 12.3%; broader office market remains broken outside of AI hubs. | — | |
| NEUTRAL |
Justin Wheeler
CEO, Berkadia |
"Most of the markets, especially the southeast markets... have an over supply problem that's probably going to last for another, you know, 6 to 12 months." While housing is unaffordable (keeping people renting), the sheer volume of new apartment deliveries prevents landlords from raising rents. Operational costs (labor/insurance) are rising while revenue is flat. Avoid/Neutral on Multifamily developers and REITs until the supply glut is absorbed (late 2026). Supply absorbs faster than expected due to construction financing freeze. | — | |
| LONG |
JP Morgan Head of CRE
Head of Commercial Real Estate, JP Morgan |
"As we go through 2026 that normalizes. The banks are back... deal making and commercial real estate is on the rise." Banks have repaired balance sheets and are re-entering the lending market. Higher base rates (high 3s/low 4s) plus spreads (5-6% total) mean banks are lending at very attractive, profitable levels compared to the zero-rate era. Long large commercial lenders. Unexpected spike in delinquencies forcing higher capital reserves. | — |