|
Feb 18
|
|
$59.38
$59.38
+0.0%
|
LONG
|
Derek Halpenny
Head of Research, MUFG Bank
|
MUFG expects the Fed to deliver three rate cuts and views the labor market as "mixed at best." Halpenny argues Trump will not raise tariffs further because he needs to deliver on cost-of-living promises. The market has priced in a "Trump Trade" (stronger USD due to tariffs/inflation). If Trump refrains from tariffs and the Fed cuts rates to support a softening labor market, the interest rate differential supporting the USD collapses. Short USD (Long JPY). Halpenny explicitly predicts a "notable drop" in USD/JPY later in the year and a 5% drop in the Dollar Index by 2026. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold or hike; Trump aggressively implements universal tariffs. |
Bloomberg Markets
China Doesn't Want Russia to Lose Ukraine War...
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|
Feb 17
|
|
$153.61
$155.19
+1.0%
|
LONG
|
@LiveSquawk
|
Japan's trade balance improved significantly in January, driven by strong export growth (16.8% Y/Y) and declining imports, which is positive for the JPY. |
@chamath
I agree. @bgurley has written something very ...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$153.61
$155.19
+1.0%
|
LONG
|
@ReutersBiz
|
The IMF urges Japan to keep raising rates and avoid reducing sales tax, which would support fiscal health and potentially strengthen the JPY. |
@elonmusk
Grok https://t.co/8yubEyioWP
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|
Feb 17
|
|
$153.61
$155.19
+1.0%
|
SHORT
|
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
|
Trivedi notes the recent Yen rally went "too far too fast" and expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates only moderately (next hike likely July, not March). The market over-extrapolated the BoJ's hawkishness. With a slow hiking cycle and a still-strong US economy, the yield gap remains wide enough to push USD/JPY back up toward 155. SHORT JPY (Targeting 155 USD/JPY). BoJ surprises with an aggressive hike in March. |
Bloomberg Markets
India Seeks Role in AI Future As Modi Hosts F...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$153.61
$155.19
+1.0%
|
LONG
|
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
US and Iran are holding indirect talks while simultaneously conducting military drills/buildups in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia-Ukraine talks are stalling with Russia demanding territory. The "Talk and Fight" dynamic creates asymmetric upside for volatility. While talks are happening (dovish), the military buildup (hawkish) ensures that any diplomatic failure results in an immediate kinetic spike. JPY and Gold are explicitly cited as capturing "haven plays" amidst this uncertainty. LONG defensive assets as a hedge against negotiation failures in Geneva. A surprise diplomatic breakthrough (Peace Deal) would crush the geopolitical premium in Oil and Gold. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$153.61
$155.19
+1.0%
|
LONG
|
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
|
JGB yields have rallied (yields down) for a week. Political risk from PM Takaichi has faded as she moves to a "middle of the road" approach, and fiscal expansion fears are receding. The market had priced in a "fiscal reckless" risk premium. As the leadership stabilizes and signals fiscal prudence, that risk premium unwinds, strengthening the Yen and lowering yields. LONG JPY as the fiscal stability narrative combines with the safe-haven geopolitical bid. Unexpected hawkish shift from the BOJ or renewed fiscal spending announcements. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
Japan's GDP missed estimates, which "underscores the case for the Prime Minister's proactive spending policies" (The Takaichi Trade). "Proactive spending" implies fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy. This macro backdrop historically weakens the currency (Yen) while boosting equity markets (Nikkei). SHORT JPY (or LONG USD/JPY). Bank of Japan intervenes aggressively to hike rates despite weak GDP. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$152.78
$155.19
+1.6%
|
NEUTRAL/WATCH
|
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
|
Japan's GDP missed expectations massively (0.2% vs 1.6%), yet the Yen has rallied from 159 to 153 against the Dollar. The weak economy makes it harder for the BOJ to hike rates aggressively (bad for banks), but structural factors (fiscal discipline, inflation entrenchment) are preventing the Yen from collapsing. The currency is stabilizing despite the weak data. NEUTRAL. The "easy short" on the Yen is over, but the "long" trade is complicated by a stalling economy. The Fed cutting rates faster than expected would send the Yen ripping higher regardless of Japanese data. |
Bloomberg Markets
Laopu Gold, CATL Added to Hang Seng Index | T...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$152.78
$155.19
+1.6%
|
LONG
|
Stefan Angrick
Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics
|
The Yen has strengthened below the 153 level. PM Takaichi won a strong mandate and is meeting the BOJ Governor. The political stability (Takaichi's mandate) removes friction for the BOJ to proceed with rate hikes. Nakao notes the Yen is fundamentally undervalued and that the BOJ must consider exchange rate stability alongside inflation. Angrick notes fiscal and monetary policies are aligned. LONG JPY (vs USD). US economic data re-accelerating, widening the yield spread again. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...
|
|
Feb 15
|
|
$152.82
$155.19
+1.5%
|
SHORT
|
LiveSquawk
|
Japan's Q4 GDP growth significantly missed expectations (0.1% vs 0.4% est), indicating |
@LiveSquawk
Japan GDP SA (Q/Q) Q4 P: 0.1% (est 0.4%; prev...
|
|
Feb 14
|
|
$152.82
$155.19
+1.5%
|
LONG
|
@dampedspring
|
Not only do they get the 12.29% Yen return but while holding Yen assets they get the 2.56% Yen appreciation as well
Let's do the math to buy 1 of the index at the starting price of 2090 with JPY at 1 |
@dampedspring
Not only do they get the 12.29% Yen return bu...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$152.82
$155.19
+1.5%
|
LONG
|
CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator
|
The presenter notes that "exporters face pressure from... yen strength" as rates push toward 1.25%. As the BoJ hikes rates while other global central banks (like the Fed) are cutting or holding, the interest rate differential narrows, naturally driving capital flows back into the Yen. LONG JPY (or Short USD/JPY) as the policy gap closes. If the BoJ remains dovish or US rates stay higher for longer, the Yen carry trade may persist. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$152.82
$155.19
+1.5%
|
LONG
|
Winnie Hsu
Bloomberg Reporter (Asia Markets)
|
"Japanese Yen... headed for its strongest week since 2024... concerns continue to ease around fiscal year policy." As the "AI Scare" drives risk-off sentiment globally, the Yen is reclaiming its status as a safe haven. Coupled with easing fiscal concerns in Japan, the currency is strengthening against the dollar. LONG. The BOJ maintains an ultra-loose policy that disappoints hawkish expectations. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Fear Drives Rout & Goldman Lawyer Quits Ov...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$153.27
$155.19
+1.3%
|
SHORT
|
Mark Cudmore
Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
|
The Japanese Yen rallied post-election due to political certainty (Takaichi trade unwinding). This rally is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" event. The fundamental backdrop (negative real yields, slow growth) hasn't changed. The market will eventually resume the carry trade against the Yen. SHORT JPY (expecting USD/JPY to rise after this temporary dip). The BOJ aggressively hikes rates faster than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in Near £10 Billion D...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
|
"The fundamental reasons for being bearish the yen have not changed... this is still a very slow growth economy with a very large debt pile that offers deeply negative real yields." The market is currently pricing in a "Buy Japan" political narrative that the speaker believes is factually wrong. The current rally to 153 is a liquidity window to re-enter short positions or fund carry trades (borrowing JPY to buy risk assets). The Yen rally is unsustainable; use the strength to Short JPY. Japanese political reforms actually generating immediate structural growth (speaker views this as unlikely). |
Bloomberg Markets
US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minu...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$153.27
$155.19
+1.3%
|
LONG
|
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
|
The Yen is strengthening (153 per dollar) despite strong US data, showing "underlying desire to sell the US Dollar" and demand for Yen regardless of macro prints. The market is structurally rotating into the Yen, likely due to the "Renaissance" in the Japanese economy and a flight to safety ahead of US political volatility (tariffs/midterms). Long JPY as a hedge against US dollar volatility. Bank of Japan failing to normalize rates further. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Rebuked Over Canada Tariffs as Midterm ...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
$157.24
$155.19
-1.3%
|
LONG
|
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Liberal Democratic Party secured a "supermajority" (more than two-thirds of seats) in the snap election. Political stability and a strong mandate allow the government to push through economic policies without gridlock. Markets hate uncertainty; a supermajority removes it. The Nikkei jumped 3.9% to a record high above 56,000 immediately following the victory. The Yen has strengthened ~3.5% YTD against the dollar. Global economic slowdown affecting Japanese exports. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Super Bowl ads & GLP-1 competitio...
|
|
Feb 08
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
Bob Elliott highlights upcoming Japanese wage data (released during Super Bowl) and a "fading currency rally after threats of intervention," noting he needs to "refresh my thinking here." Strong wage data could signal a shift in the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially leading to JPY appreciation. However, the "fading currency rally" and intervention threats introduce significant uncertainty. The author's need to refresh thinking suggests a complex and potentially volatile situation. Monitor Japanese wage data, BoJ commentary, and JPY price action closely for a clearer directional signal. Avoid taking a strong directional stance until more clarity emerges, but be prepared for potential volatility in JPY (e.g., FXY) and Japanese equities (e.g., EWJ). BoJ maintains dovish stance, actual currency intervention, global risk-off sentiment driving safe-haven flows into JPY despite domestic factors. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.08
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$156.92
$155.19
-1.1%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The BoJ "seems forced to hike in response to the FX pressures," implying a move towards tightening. This, combined with the Fed aggressively arguing for easier policy, creates a significant policy divergence. A tightening BoJ (leading to JPY strength) and an easing Fed (leading to USD weakness) creates a strong fundamental case for USD/JPY depreciation. Short USD/JPY to capitalize on the relative tightening of the BoJ and the easing of the Fed. The BoJ's hike could be a "one-and-done" or less impactful than expected, or the Fed's easing could be less aggressive, reducing the divergence. Geopolitical events could also drive safe-haven flows into USD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|