@dampedspring (9 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 18, 2026 SHORT The speaker explicitly calls BMNR and MSTR "pump and dump grifts" with identical business models, implying they are overvalued and unsustainable. Twitter - @dampedspring
@MBBHACK @DerivativesDon At the most narrow m...
Feb 15, 2026 SHORT MicroStrategy ($MSTR) trades at a premium to its underlying Bitcoin ($BTC) holdings (MNAV premium), suggesting investors should sell MSTR and buy BTC directly to avoid this premium. Twitter - @BillAckman
True https://t.co/KzdhIGFyOh...
Feb 15, 2026
BB
SHORT BlackBerry had all the advantages of today's SaaS megacaps. My first iPhone was the iPhone 4. The unseen iceberg blackberry had took 3 years from the first IPhone to hollow out. And of course there w Twitter - @dampedspring
BlackBerry had all the advantages of today's ...
Feb 15, 2026 SHORT Capital group the literal only discretionary (non passive index tracking) large institutional long in $MSTR finally capitulating their nonsense support of DAT companies. Sold 1/3 so far. https://t.co Twitter - @dampedspring
Capital group the literal only discretionary ...
Feb 15, 2026
CRM
NEUTRAL The tweet acknowledges SaaS companies Twitter - @dampedspring
Cool graphic from @finbarr and of course it's...
Feb 14, 2026
EWJ
NEUTRAL arbitraged such that you always get the USD price of the Japanese local equity converted from yen to USD ETF's like EWJ are simply baskets of Japanese stocks which hold the same currency exposure as Twitter - @dampedspring
arbitraged such that you always get the USD p...
Feb 14, 2026
SPY
SHORT Today the thing they own is 2345 and the Yen is 152.70. If they sold it and converted back to yen they have 2345/152.7=15.357 USD Their return is 15.357/13.337-1=0.151 or 15.1% in USD vs the 0.02% l Twitter - @dampedspring
Today the thing they own is 2345 and the Yen ...
Feb 14, 2026
JPY
LONG Not only do they get the 12.29% Yen return but while holding Yen assets they get the 2.56% Yen appreciation as well Let's do the math to buy 1 of the index at the starting price of 2090 with JPY at 1 Twitter - @dampedspring
Not only do they get the 12.29% Yen return bu...
Feb 14, 2026
SPY
NEUTRAL When Americans buy a $SPY we receive the return of SPY and its prepackaged in USD. But SPY is not the only equity market in the world (albeit a great one for decades) We could also buy an index fund Twitter - @dampedspring
When Americans buy a $SPY we receive the retu...