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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker notes that "4 out of the top 5 AI models by global usage are Chinese," BYD sold 50% more EVs than Tesla, and Chinese consumer apps (TikTok, games) dominate culture. The market consensus is that China merely "steals" IP, but the data shows genuine technical breakthroughs and superior unit economics (Minimax is 20x cheaper than US counterparts). As China dominates both "Atoms" (manufacturing) and "Bits" (AI/Apps), their equity valuations are disconnected from their actual dominance. LONG Chinese tech and manufacturing leaders as they capture global market share in EVs, AI, and culture ("Chinamaxxing"). Geopolitical sanctions; US trade barriers blocking Chinese products. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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Feb 18
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—
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WATCH
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
AI video and text generation has become so advanced that "you can't tell" if a video is fake or if a person is real (citing a viral Stranger Things AI video). The technology has surpassed the threshold of human discernment. We are entering a phase where "you don't know if what you saw on social media is real" or if the person on the phone is alive. This creates a volatile environment for the sector regarding trust and safety. While capabilities are bullish for tech adoption, the "dark underlying belly" (deepfakes, fraud, impersonation) suggests looming crises that could trigger harsh regulations. Tech advancement continues to outpace regulation, driving stock prices higher despite societal risks. |
Thread Guy
AI is Replacing Dead People & Nobody is Notic...
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Feb 17
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—
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AVOID
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"Buying Chinese stocks... they're almost impossible to invest in because China does these like state-owned... companies... you get destroyed as an investor." Despite the host's bullishness on China's economic performance (EVs, AI models, consumer tech), the structure of the Chinese market and CCP intervention makes the equities "uninvestable" for Western speculators. Avoid direct exposure despite the "China Maxing" macro thesis. Missing out if China opens markets or sentiment shifts drastically. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Narrator
Financial Reporter
|
"Investors [are] looking instead to go more into the AI winners... You can see there's been a massive divergence as investors look to avoid companies associated with these risks and flock towards the AI winners." This is a capital rotation trade. Money leaving the "Disrupted" sectors (Finance, SaaS, Gaming) is not leaving the market entirely; it is recycling into the "Disruptors." As fear of obsolescence grows for the rest of the S&P 500, the premium on the few companies controlling the AI infrastructure increases. LONG. Momentum trade based on the "Safety Trade" dynamic within tech. Valuation overextension if AI monetization fails to materialize quickly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Are AI Fears Triggering a Stock Market Doom L...
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Feb 17
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—
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AVOID
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Dylan Field
CEO, Figma
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"We do not uh have uh any offerings around Chinese models right now... we need to really be auditing um every model we look at." Enterprise software platforms (like Figma) act as gatekeepers. Due to security, auditability, and trust concerns, Western enterprise platforms will exclude Chinese AI models from their integrations. This limits the commercial reach of Chinese AI in the Western B2B market, regardless of model quality. Avoid Chinese AI plays expecting Western enterprise adoption; the "Trust Moat" favors US/European models (Anthropic, OpenAI, etc.). Chinese models become so superior in performance that companies bypass safety protocols to use them. |
CNBC
Figma CEO Dylan Field on the software reckoni...
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Feb 17
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—
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AVOID
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Dylan Field
CEO, Figma
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When asked if Figma would offer superior Chinese models to users, Field replied, "We do not have any offerings around Chinese models right now... we need to really be auditing every model." Despite performance breakthroughs (Sea Dance 2.0), US software platforms are erecting "Soft Sanctions" by refusing to integrate Chinese models due to security/trust issues. This limits the commercial TAM of Chinese AI tech in the Western enterprise stack. AVOID. Technology leadership does not equal market access in a bifurcated geopolitical environment. If Chinese models become undeniably superior, users may bypass platforms like Figma to use them directly. |
CNBC
Figma CEO Dylan Field On The Software Reckoni...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
|
China is "building out the entire ecosystem" from frontier models (Alibaba's Deep Six, ByteDance's video gen) to domestic chips and humanoid robots that are "far more fluid and precise" than previous iterations. The market underestimates China's ability to compete across the *entire* stack. Alibaba is open-sourcing powerful models, and domestic hardware is successfully powering advanced robotics, reducing reliance on US tech. Long Chinese tech leaders (BABA) and the broader sector as they prove resilience and innovation despite sanctions. Increased US export controls or sanctions; regulatory crackdowns within China. |
CNBC
China's Lunar New Year tech showcase
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
"China has unveiled its latest humanoid robot AGI bot... It looks better than what we just watched... It feels like robotics is going to be one of those things that [__] comes out of literal nowhere and hits us like a truck." The market is currently fixated on software AI (LLMs), but physical AI (humanoids) is reaching a tipping point of realism. The shock value of seeing functional humanoids will trigger a massive capital rotation into robotics hardware. LONG Robotics as the next phase of the AI trade. High R&D costs and slower-than-expected commercial deployment compared to software. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
|
CME Group Presenter
Host/Narrator
|
"Corporations have announced layoffs, but much of that impact has been viewed as shifting of positions and redirecting resources elsewhere." The market feared an "AI Job Freeze" (stagnation). The data proves companies are not shrinking; they are pivoting. "Redirecting resources" means cutting legacy costs to buy more GPU compute and AI software. This confirms the Capex Supercycle is still active. Bullish for the primary beneficiaries of this resource redirection (Hardware and Hyperscalers). Disappointment in AI ROI leading to a pause in corporate spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Present...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
|
"I would certainly be picking up names that were impacted by this theory of the market for lemons... massive opportunity for stock picks... particularly in the AI world and in the world impacted by AI." The recent sell-off in software and AI has been indiscriminate (correlations went to 1), dragging down high-quality companies ("peaches") alongside low-quality ones ("lemons"). This mispricing allows investors to buy companies with strong balance sheets and leadership at depressed valuations. Buy high-quality AI and software stocks that have been oversold. Focus on bottom-up selection (strong balance sheets) rather than buying the whole sector. Continued sector-wide rotation out of tech; failure of specific companies to differentiate themselves from the "lemons." |
CNBC
Expect a lot of volatility as we go forward, ...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
|
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
|
The speaker states, "If we want to be bleeding edge on what's happening in AI and speculative entertainment speculative finance... we have to spend an increasingly large amount of time with said things." He concludes, "I want to fully commit to the flow." The "Flow" represents the concentration of liquidity, attention, and alpha in the fastest-moving sectors (specifically identified as AI and Crypto/Speculative Entertainment). To "commit" to the flow is to be directionally long these high-beta asset classes. The speaker argues that "tourists" (partial participants) will fail, while those who "submit" to the speed of these markets will be rewarded. LONG the most speculative, high-attention sectors (AI and Crypto) as the speaker commits to "riding" the volatility. "AI psychosis," mental burnout, and the potential for the "flow" to "gently return you to pedestrian life" (total loss of capital) if habits cannot be maintained. |
Thread Guy
Why Being Chronically Online Is Now a Cheat C...
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Feb 15
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—
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LONG
|
David Autor
Professor of Economics, MIT
|
"There are many, many signs that we have long-term labor shortage. So, we're not going to run out of jobs." If there is a structural labor shortage, the cost of human labor will remain high or supply will be insufficient. This forces companies to invest in automation not just for efficiency, but for survival. This guarantees a long-term CAPEX cycle for robotics and AI automation hardware. Long automation providers as the solution to demographic decline. A deep recession could temporarily loosen the labor market, reducing the urgency for automation CAPEX. |
Bloomberg Markets
Who will survive and thrive in the new AI era...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
|
Narrator
Video Narrator
|
The narrator states that quantum supremacy "could mean accelerated progress in areas like drug research, artificial intelligence, defense and finance." These sectors are the direct beneficiaries of quantum utility. The ability to process data in parallel (qubits) rather than sequentially (bits) unlocks capabilities in molecular modeling (Biotech), encryption (Defense), and complex market simulation (Finance) that are currently impossible. Long the downstream sectors that will leverage quantum speed to revolutionize their R&D and operational efficiency. The technology remains experimental; failure to achieve stability means these sectors cannot yet deploy these tools. |
Bloomberg Markets
Can Quantum Computing Power the AI Boom?
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
|
Jim Cantrell
CEO, Phantom Space (Co-Founder SpaceX)
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"What we hear from the HYPERSCALERS is they're looking for unique data... that unique data resides in space... We think that's one of the killer apps [AI]." The AI trade is evolving from "chip manufacturing" to "data acquisition." As terrestrial data becomes commoditized or exhausted, the premium shifts to companies that can harvest and process unique physical-world data from orbit. Long the AI value chain that extends into physical infrastructure and data acquisition. Overvaluation in the AI sector; the speaker notes the industry recently went through an "asset bubble" in 2021/2022 that has since burst and is recovering. |
Bloomberg Markets
Building Data Centers in Space
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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David Solomon
Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs
|
"You have a pretty significant capital investment surge around AI and this technology, which is obviously... very stimulative to the economy." Solomon identifies AI capex as a core pillar of the current economic strength. Continued "surge" in investment implies sustained revenue for the AI infrastructure and technology value chain. LONG AI Sector to align with the massive capital deployment cycle Solomon describes. Overinvestment leading to a capex trough if ROI disappoints. |
CNBC
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: The macro se...
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Feb 13
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—
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WATCH
|
Gina Raimondo
Former Commerce Secretary
|
She admits, "China is ahead in the diffusion and the number of people and the number of companies using AI." She attributes this to government mandates that force companies to find new jobs for laid-off workers, reducing social friction/fear around adoption. While the US leads in high-end model generation (the "race"), China may lead in practical application and data gathering (the "diffusion") due to lower social resistance. This suggests Chinese AI application layers could monetize faster internally than expected, despite hardware bans. WATCH for signs that diffusion leadership translates to financial performance, though geopolitical risk remains the dominant factor. US sanctions/export controls; Chinese regulatory unpredictability. |
CNBC
Former Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo: Economic ...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Gina Raimondo
Former Commerce Secretary
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Raimondo defines economic security as "leading in artificial intelligence, leading in biotech and quantum" and states the US must "make sure that we are winning the AI race." The US government views these specific sectors not just as commercial industries but as components of "military might." This implies sustained government funding, defense contracts, and protectionist policies to ensure US hegemony over China in these fields. LONG US strategic technology sectors (AI, Quantum, Biotech) as they are effectively government-backed imperatives. High valuation multiples in tech; potential export controls limiting total addressable market (TAM) in China. |
CNBC
Former Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo: Economic ...
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|
Feb 13
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—
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LONG
|
—
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The speaker notes that companies with "high human kind of work hours, labour intensive" models are under pressure ("paranoia is category five"). Conversely, those "installing datacentres" will be "minted for the next few years." The market is bifurcating based on labor efficiency. Capital is fleeing labor-heavy legacy businesses and flowing into AI scalability and the physical infrastructure (data centers) required to run it. LONG Data Center Infrastructure and AI scalability plays; SHORT/AVOID labor-intensive service sectors. Overbuilding of data center capacity or regulatory crackdowns on AI job displacement. |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
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|
Feb 13
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—
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LONG
|
Julia Wong
North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management
|
Chinese tech valuations are low. The country is focusing on "Industrial Robotics" and a "whole economy approach" to AI rather than just consumer chatbots. While the U.S. worries about AI monetization in software, China is integrating AI into manufacturing (hard assets). This creates a productivity lift that is currently unpriced in the beaten-down valuations of Chinese tech giants. LONG. A contrarian value play on AI implementation in the industrial sector. Geopolitical sanctions (e.g., U.S. action against DeepSeek) or trade war escalation under the Trump administration. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Angst Rocks Asia Markets | The Asia Trade ...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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WATCH
|
Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
|
An "internal safety civil war" is going public. Safety researchers are quitting OpenAI and Anthropic, warning that models are now "improving themselves" and posing existential threats. OpenAI has dismantled its "mission alignment team." The industry is pivoting from "safety first" to "commercialization first" (the "Facebook playbook"). While this accelerates revenue (bullish), the exodus of safety talent and warnings of "chemical weapons" capabilities creates significant tail risk. If a model causes real-world harm, the regulatory pendulum could swing violently back toward restriction. WATCH. The "Acceleration" camp (OpenAI/PLTR) currently has the momentum and capital, but the "Safety" camp (Anthropic) is highlighting risks that could trigger a black swan event. Regulatory crackdown following a safety failure; loss of key talent slowing innovation. |
CNBC
AI’s high-stakes safety divide
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|
Feb 12
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—
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WATCH
|
Roger Ferguson
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve
|
Ferguson notes that while AI may boost productivity, "the demand for investment starts to go up, which also pushes up interest rates." Investors often assume AI is purely deflationary (allowing rate cuts). Ferguson introduces the Second-Order effect: The massive CapEx required for AI creates a demand for capital, which raises the cost of money (rates). This means the AI boom can coexist with—and actually cause—higher interest rates, rather than solving them. WATCH. Be careful assuming AI will trigger a low-rate environment; the investment phase is capital-intensive and rate-supportive. If AI fails to deliver productivity gains quickly, the investment demand could dry up, altering the rate dynamic. |
CNBC
The economic data doesn't support an aggressi...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Alex Bores
NY State Assembly Member
|
"The market actually currently is undervaluing trustworthiness of AI. The AI that will win in the long term will be trustworthy AI." Bores argues we are moving from a "move fast" phase to a "verification" phase. As regulations tighten, the "moat" shifts from raw compute speed to safety/compliance verification. This favors established players who can afford the "extensive checks" and audit layers over "wild west" startups. LONG companies building "Trustworthy AI" infrastructure and compliance layers. Over-regulation stifles innovation entirely; China/competitors ignore safety and win on capability. |
CNBC
NY Assemblyman Alex Bores on AI regulation: N...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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LONG
|
Joe Montana
NFL Hall of Famer / Partner at Liquid 2 Ventures
|
"We started investing in AI back in 2016... It's a tool available for you. Might as well use it... I just got an answer on what is all expected on a chief operating officer." Montana validates AI not as a speculative bubble, but as a functional utility for business operations. His firm's early entry (2016) and his current practical use of "the chat" (LLMs) suggest continued conviction in the utility phase of the technology. LONG. Overvaluation in the sector or regulatory crackdowns on AI models. |
CNBC
Joe Montana On Football, Finance And Team Bui...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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LONG
|
Christy Tan
Investment Strateg
|
Chinese equities are trading at ~12x forward PE versus the S&P 500 at 26x. Retail investors are returning (margin financing at record highs). The valuation gap provides a margin of safety. Tan argues you don't need the whole economy to boom, just a cyclical bottom. Harris notes the government's push for Renminbi internationalization supports the asset class. LONG. A value play within a global portfolio. Geopolitical tensions; continued property sector drag; lack of software earnings growth compared to hardware. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Eyes Big India Plans as US Banks Rush to...
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|
Feb 12
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—
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LONG
|
Julia Coronado
Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives
|
"We've got the AI tailwinds on investment." While the consumer and broader jobs market are slowing, corporate capital expenditure on Artificial Intelligence remains a robust pillar supporting the economy, preventing a recessionary spiral. Long AI infrastructure and investment themes as the primary growth engine in a slowing macro environment. Overinvestment or lack of ROI in AI projects could remove this economic prop. |
CNBC
Hiring trend barely in positive territory, sa...
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|
Feb 11
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—
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LONG
|
Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"Coal is also critical to... artificial intelligence... It's incredible what's happening with coal." The President views coal as the primary solution to the "energy cliff" facing AI data centers. This implies that regulatory hurdles for powering new data centers will be removed *if* they utilize fossil fuel baseloads. This removes the power-constraint bottleneck for AI scaling. LONG AI infrastructure and data centers, as energy constraints are being legislated away via coal deregulation. Tech companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) refusing coal power due to internal ESG mandates despite government pressure. |
CNBC
President Trump participates in an event on c...
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|
Feb 11
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—
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LONG
|
Vlad Tenev
CEO, Robinhood
|
"So many announced private companies, including... space exploration companies and Frontier AI labs that are expected to be entering the public markets." Tenev is signaling a robust IPO pipeline. When high-profile "story stocks" (like SpaceX or major AI labs) go public, retail participation spikes. This creates a flywheel effect: high-hype IPOs draw users to brokerages, increasing volume and margin balances. LONG. Position for a resurgence in the IPO market and the specific sectors (Space/AI) leading it. Macroeconomic tightening could freeze the IPO window; valuation concerns for new listings. |
Bloomberg Markets
Robinhood CEO Still 'Tremendously' Bullish on...
|
|
Feb 11
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|
—
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LONG
|
Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter
|
Deirdre highlights that AI-native companies like Anthropic are "disrupting companies that still have tens of thousands of people on the payroll" while operating with only a "fraction of the people" (e.g., 4,000 employees). If the gap between "possible" and "here" is collapsing, value will accrue to the efficient, AI-native disruptors who can execute technical work without the bloat of legacy firms. Long the AI Sector (and specific disruptors) as they gain market share from legacy tech through superior unit economics. Regulatory crackdowns on AI displacement or overvaluation of private AI firms. |
CNBC
Viral AI disruption post sows division
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|
Feb 11
|
|
—
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LONG
|
Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
|
"The race among top AI companies... is only accelerating." Anthropic has only ~4,000 employees but has caused "billions and billions in disruption." Value is shifting from labor-heavy legacy firms to lean, capital-efficient AI model providers. These companies generate massive disruption with a fraction of the overhead. LONG. These are the engines of the disruption, capturing the value lost by the software and services sectors. Regulatory hurdles or rapid commoditization of the models themselves. |
CNBC
AI disruption fears rattle stocks
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
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LONG
|
Michael Gapen
Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley
|
"The narrowness of growth in the economy has always been an issue. It is... AI-related business spending." While Gapen predicts a broadening *eventually*, he acknowledges that the *current* economic engine is almost entirely fueled by AI business spending. Until the rotation to small caps is confirmed by data, the AI sector remains the primary source of realized growth. LONG AI Sector (continuing the trend until the breakdown). Over-investment or a pause in capex spending by hyperscalers. |
Bloomberg Markets
This Jobs Report Is 'Largely the Real Deal,' ...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
|
Chinese models and open-source alternatives are catching up to US closed models rapidly. Models like "Kimi" and "DeepSeek" are performing nearly as well as top-tier US models but at a fraction of the cost (or free). This creates a "race to the bottom" for pricing power among US model providers. Databricks' largest customers are offloading workloads to cheaper Chinese/open models for cost efficiency. Geopolitical regulation or chip bans could stifle the progress of Chinese models. |
CNBC
Under the hood of the AI economy: Databricks ...
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|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
|
Chinese models (like Kimi and DeepSeek) and open-source models are creating a price ceiling for US tech. These models are "good enough" (slightly behind US models) but significantly cheaper or free. This forces US hyperscalers to lower prices to compete, preventing them from maintaining massive margins on pure compute/token costs. Large Databricks customers are offloading high-volume tasks to Chinese models to save money. Geopolitical regulations could ban the use of Chinese models by Western enterprises. |
CNBC
Preparing for another tech wipeout: Databrick...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
NEUTRAL
|
Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
|
The market is moving away from the 2023/2024 dynamic where investors "fell in love with anything that had an AI label." We are entering a "differentiation phase." Investors can no longer buy the whole sector blindly. They must scrutinize individual business models (e.g., comparing Google to OpenAI) because FOMO is leading to potential over-investment. Bond market spreads have widened slightly for "hyperscalers" (large cloud/AI companies), signaling that credit markets are becoming cautious about spending levels. Missing out on the broader sector momentum if the "productivity boom" accelerates faster than cost concerns. |
CNBC
Volatility, dispersion and fragmentation are ...
|
|
Feb 02
|
|
—
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LONG
|
Thiccy
Quant Trader / Crypto Analyst
|
Thiccy argues that a bull market requires a "new cohort of unsophisticated masses with capital." Currently, that capital is in Web2 AI (VCs and startups with inflated valuations). Crypto 2021 was fueled by stimulus checks; the current mania is fueled by AI speculation. The "dumb money" is chasing AI startups and infrastructure, making it the current venue for bubble-like returns. LONG. Follow the flow of unsophisticated capital. The AI bubble bursts or fails to deliver revenue commensurate with valuations. |
Thread Guy
Crypto is in TROUBLE.. and only ONE THING can...
|