Robinhood CEO Still 'Tremendously' Bullish on Crypto

Speakers

Vlad Tenev — CEO, Robinhood

Summary

Robinhood is pivoting from a pure trading venue to a "financial super app," evidenced by a 100% YoY increase in retirement Assets Under Custody (AUC) to $26.5 billion.
Tenev identifies three converging macro tailwinds: a $100 trillion generational wealth transfer, an AI productivity super cycle, and a wave of private "Frontier AI" and space exploration companies entering public markets.
Despite recent crypto revenue declines, the firm is doubling down on infrastructure, launching the "Robinhood Chain" specifically to target the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA).
The CEO declares the market is at the "beginning of a prediction market supercycle," moving to verticalize this stack via a joint venture (Rothera) with Susquehanna (SIG).

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
IPO /SPACEX /AI SECTOR	LONG	Vlad Tenev CEO, Robinhood	"So many announced private companies, including... space exploration companies and Frontier AI labs that are expected to be entering the public markets." Tenev is signaling a robust IPO pipeline. When high-profile "story stocks" (like SpaceX or major AI labs) go public, retail participation spikes. This creates a flywheel effect: high-hype IPOs draw users to brokerages, increasing volume and margin balances. LONG. Position for a resurgence in the IPO market and the specific sectors (Space/AI) leading it. Macroeconomic tightening could freeze the IPO window; valuation concerns for new listings.	—
CRYPTO SECTOR /REAL WORLD ASSETS	LONG	Vlad Tenev CEO, Robinhood	"We announced the test net of Robinhood chain, which we intend to be the world's number one chain for trading real world assets... we see a world where crypto and TradFi increasingly convergent." Robinhood is not just acting as an exchange but building the layer (L1/L2) for asset tokenization. If they succeed in becoming the settlement layer for tokenized stocks or treasuries, they capture infrastructure fees, not just transaction fees. LONG. Bullish on the RWA narrative and infrastructure plays facilitating TradFi/Crypto convergence. Regulatory rejection of tokenized securities; failure of the Robinhood Chain to gain developer traction.	1:31
PREDICTION MARKETS	LONG	Vlad Tenev CEO, Robinhood	"We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle... prediction markets attract a new type of customer." Prediction markets are being treated as a new asset class, not just a novelty. By launching "Rothera" (an exchange JV with SIG) and integrating it into the main app, Robinhood aims to institutionalize event wagering. This expands the Total Addressable Market (TAM) beyond equities and crypto. LONG. The sector is moving from niche/offshore to regulated/mainstream. Regulatory intervention (CFTC) classifying these strictly as gambling rather than hedging instruments.	2:02
HOOD	LONG	Vlad Tenev CEO, Robinhood	"Retirement is at $26.5 billion assets under custody... up over 100% year over year... we look at it as the overall relationship... from their paycheck direct deposit to their long term savings." Robinhood is successfully executing a "stickiness" pivot. By capturing retirement accounts (sticky capital) and spending (credit cards), they are reducing the volatility risk associated with retail trading volumes. The 100% growth in retirement assets proves they are capturing the "wealth transfer" demographic effectively. LONG. The transition from a transactional casino model to a holistic wealth management platform warrants a multiple re-rating. A prolonged recession could slow net deposits; regulatory crackdown on the new "prediction market" products.	0:18