Bloomberg Surveillance 8/5/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 05 августа 2026, 14:52 | 2:24:17 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Noel Dixon — Макростратег, State Street Global Markets

Ashok Bhatia — Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman

Alicia Levine — Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon

Monica DiCenso — Старший макростратег, Wells Fargo

Nisha Patel — Управление портфелем, Parametric

Noah Weisberger — Главный инвестиционный стратег, BCA Research

Karen Gibson — Lieutenant General (Ret.)

Dan Ives — Управляющий директор, Wedbush Securities

Bryan Whalen — CIO & Generalist Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income, TCW Group

Andrew Hollenhorst — Chief Economist, Piper Sandler

Collin Martin — Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab

Ariana Salvatore — Стратег по политике США, Morgan Stanley

The program covers the record-breaking rally in the S&P 500 driven by strong tech earnings and a catch-up in software and hyperscalers. Multiple guests express bullish views on U.S. equities, particularly large-cap tech and cybersecurity, while also favoring gold as a hedge. On the fixed-income side, there is broad aversion to long-term U.S. Treasuries due to fiscal concerns and AI capex supply, with a preference for intermediate Treasuries, hyperscaler credit, investment-grade corporates, and municipal bonds. The debate over Fed policy intensifies amid mixed signals on inflation and the labor market, with the market pricing in rate hikes while some strategists still see room for cuts. - S&P 500 hits all-time highs, rally led by tech, hyperscalers, and semiconductors. - Earnings season delivers broad strength, supporting a constructive equity outlook. - U.S. long-end yields remain under pressure from heavy government and corporate supply. - Fed Chair Warhs's communication style fuels uncertainty and volatility in bond markets. - Several guests recommend gold and gold miners as a portfolio hedge. - Fixed-income investors favor intermediate Treasuries, IG corporates, and munis over long bonds. - Political and local constraints emerge as a risk for AI data center buildouts. - ADP jobs data misses expectations, adding to the debate on labor market strength.

Идеи

Noel Dixon Макростратег, State Street Global Markets 5:10

Semiconductors will lead tech rebound

Positioning in tech was reduced from the 98th percentile to the 80th, and investors are now returning. Fundamental demand for semiconductors remains significant, the SOX index is still 16% off its highs and can retrace those losses. Risk metrics like absorption ratios and correlation surprises are not flashing red, suggesting the move has legs.

Noel Dixon Макростратег, State Street Global Markets 8:53

Buy gold as inflation hedge

Gold is a good hedge against risk assets given lingering inflation concerns. Volatility is cheap, making options strategies like one-month spreads attractive, but buying gold is a straightforward hedge.

Ashok Bhatia Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman 45:49

Avoid 30-year U.S. Treasuries

The U.S. fiscal situation will keep demanding more capital, causing 30-year Treasury yields to stay elevated or rise further. The government will continue to issue debt, and bondholders are demanding higher real yields. Until fiscal discipline appears, the 30-year is unattractive relative to shorter maturities and hyperscaler credit.

Ashok Bhatia Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman 45:58

Buy hyperscaler 30-year credit

Hyperscaler corporate debt spreads have widened by 50–60 basis points year-to-date, providing much better compensation for credit risk. The balance sheets of large tech companies are pristine and can absorb the debt. The all-in yield is attractive, especially compared to 30-year Treasuries. There is enough spread protection even if yields move up.

Ashok Bhatia Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman 46:10

Buy 5- and 10-year Treasuries

Core inflation is on track to move back toward the Fed’s 2% target by year-end, driven by lower shelter costs, weaker goods prices, and declining wage gains. The Fed is likely to stay on hold, and the market will take out the priced-in rate hikes. Shorter and intermediate rates should fall, making current real yields attractive on 5-year and 10-year Treasuries.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 53:38

S&P 500 will end higher

The rally feels hated, but strong broad-based earnings growth is the single best indicator. Most sectors are posting double-digit earnings growth, margins are expanding, and earnings momentum is still swinging higher. Cash balances remain elevated, providing fuel for further gains of 5–10% over the next 12 months.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 56:39

Large-cap tech will revert higher

Large-cap tech has been terrible since November of last year, underperforming the S&P 500, the Russell, and emerging markets. This group is now unloved and cheap relative to history, and that underperformance should revert as earnings power reasserts itself.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 104:16

Cybersecurity benefits from AI threats

AI is changing everything and making it easier for bad actors to execute data breaches and other cyberattacks. This creates an obvious and growing demand tailwind for cybersecurity solutions.

Nisha Patel Управление портфелем, Parametric 126:19

Buy IG corporates for income

Investment-grade corporate bond yields have risen 50–60 basis points, and the income profile now looks much better. Stronger balance sheet companies offer attractive yields even without relying on spread compression. The income component provides a good hedge against potential further yield increases.

Nisha Patel Управление портфелем, Parametric 127:13

Muni bonds offer high after-tax yield

For high-tax-bracket individuals, municipal bonds now offer tax-equivalent yields of 5.5–6% in the 10-year part of the curve, driven by rate volatility and attractive absolute yields. This makes them a compelling income play.

Noah Weisberger Главный инвестиционный стратег, BCA Research 141:05

Gold miners added to portfolio

Gold miners have been added to the recommendation list as a portfolio diversification and hedge, reflecting a more cautious but still constructive body language.

Noah Weisberger Главный инвестиционный стратег, BCA Research 142:11

Software benefits from AI monetization

Software companies are getting good commentary about monetizing AI exposures. While there is existential risk further out from model convergence, the near-term earnings and uptake look solid.

Noah Weisberger Главный инвестиционный стратег, BCA Research 142:28

Hyperscaler stocks deliver on AI earnings

Hyperscalers are successfully turning massive capex investments into earnings, providing a degree of political insulation because of their strategic importance. The monetization story is tangible, and they remain attractive.