Bloomberg Surveillance 7/31/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 31 июля 2026, 15:42 | 2:24:14 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Tom Forte — Аналитик, Maxim Group

Thierry Wizman — Глобальный стратег, Macquarie Group

Daleep Singh

Michael Arougheti — CEO, Ares Management

Phil Camporeale — Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Shweta Khajuria — Analyst, Wolfe Research

Dan Niles — Основатель и портфельный менеджер, Niles Investment Management

Victoria Fernandez — Представитель, Crossmark Global Investments

Yahaira Jacquez — Видеожурналист, Reuters

Lei Qiu — Portfolio Manager, AllianceBernstein

Dan Greenhaus — Главный стратег, ICAP

The program covers a tech equity rebound driven by strong earnings from mega-cap names, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google rewarded for AI clarity. The Fed faces credibility challenges after Chair Warsh's dovish and vague press conference prompted three dissents and a bond market selloff. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz remain in focus, while the Japanese yen is seen as undervalued. Private credit demand is accelerating at Ares Management, and strategists highlight opportunities in financials, front-end Treasuries, and curve flattening trades. - Tech stocks rally on strong AI-driven cloud earnings from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. - Fed Chair Warsh's press conference widely criticized for lack of clarity, triggering dissent and bond yield surge. - Apple misses on supply constraints and margin pressure, weighing on the stock. - Geopolitical concerns persist with Iran and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions supporting oil. - Japanese Yen viewed as deeply undervalued, supported by fundamentals and possible US intervention. - Financials sector gaining traction due to positive earnings revisions and capital market activity. - Ares Management reports accelerating institutional demand for private credit. - Bond market sees buying opportunity in front-end Treasuries amid curve flattening expectations.

Идеи

Tom Forte Аналитик, Maxim Group 33:27

Apple supply crunch is temporary.

Apple's supply constraints and component shortages are short-term; the company retains strong pricing power and supply chain management, so margin pressure from memory inflation will resolve over 12-18 months. Long-term margins are not threatened.

Thierry Wizman Глобальный стратег, Macquarie Group 40:41

Yen undervalued, set to strengthen.

The Japanese yen is very undervalued given Japan's strong economy, popular Prime Minister's policies, and solid fundamentals. The market will eventually recognize the undervaluation and the yen will strengthen.

Daleep Singh 70:12

Add curve flattening risk.

The Fed is losing credibility and will ultimately need to hike rates three times this year. This argues for positioning for a flatter yield curve by adding curve flattening risk over the next month.

Michael Arougheti CEO, Ares Management 85:19

Private credit demand boosts Ares.

Ares Management is experiencing accelerating institutional demand for private credit, record fundraising, strong portfolio performance, and margin improvement from AI deployment, making the business broadly strong and diversified.

Phil Camporeale Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 103:30

Stay long equities over bonds.

Equity trade momentum continues with 24% earnings growth forecast for 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth, interest-rate-insensitive tech earnings, and broadening profitability. Equities remain favored over bonds.

Phil Camporeale Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 104:24

Buy front-end Treasuries for carry.

Front-end Treasury yields now offer attractive carry and the Fed is priced for one or two hikes; unless data significantly surprises, front-end bonds present a buying opportunity after the recent selloff.

Phil Camporeale Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 107:17

Overweight US financials sector.

Financials are seeing the biggest positive earnings revisions, supported by buybacks and recovering capital market activity, making them an attractive new sector addition alongside tech and industrials.

Shweta Khajuria Analyst, Wolfe Research 117:00

Amazon AI spending rewarding shareholders.

Amazon's massive AI investments are already paying off with AWS revenue accelerating to its fastest pace in nearly four years; the company has clear line of sight to returns and AWS alone could drive two-thirds of operating value.

Dan Niles Основатель и портфельный менеджер, Niles Investment Management 138:21

Microsoft enterprise AI adoption accelerating.

Microsoft's 450 million paid seats with only 30 million Copilot seats represents enormous enterprise AI adoption runway; businesses will pay for Copilot security, driving significant revenue growth.

Dan Niles Основатель и портфельный менеджер, Niles Investment Management 138:21

Google is consumer AI winner.

Google Cloud revenue accelerated 63% year-over-year with huge cash flow, and the company is positioned to be the ultimate winner in consumer AI, making it the favorite play after forced selling created a buying opportunity.