MacroVoices #532 Mike Green: Record Mechanical Flows
Спикеры
Patrick Ceresna
— Специалист по деривативам, MacroVoices
Rory Johnston
— Основатель, Commodity Context
Erik Townsend
— Основатель и ведущий, MacroVoices
Michael Green
— Портфельный менеджер, Simplify Asset Management
Mike Green argues that passive and systematic flows, not fundamentals, are driving the S&P 500 to new highs despite the Hormuz energy crisis. He disagrees with secular inflation forecasts, expects the Fed to cut aggressively as the economy weakens. Rory Johnston provides an oil market update, warning that inventories are drawing down and oil prices will eventually surge. The postgame includes a trade of the week on SOFR futures and technical analysis on copper, gold, and other markets.
- Mike Green attributes S&P 500 strength to mechanical passive and CTA flows, not fundamentals.
- Green expects energy shock to cause demand destruction, not persistent inflation.
- Green believes Kevin Warsh will cut rates more aggressively than the market prices.
- Rory Johnston details 13 million bpd shut in from Hormuz closure, inventories drawing down.
- Johnston predicts oil prices will reach all-time highs if Hormuz remains closed.
- Patrick's trade of the week is a bull call spread on Dec 2027 SOFR futures betting on Fed easing.
- Postgame analysis shows copper at all-time highs with bullish continuation expected.
- Erik Townsend conditionally bullish on gold if China resolves the crisis.
Идеи
Oil prices to reach all-time highs
The Hormuz closure has shut in ~13 million barrels per day of oil, inventories are drawing down globally, and demand destruction has not yet occurred. Despite near-term price patience, continued stock draws will force oil prices to all-time highs if the strait remains closed. The back of the curve is already rising, signaling an inevitable price surge.
Fed will cut more than priced
Based on Mike Green's view that the economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests, with deteriorating labor conditions, overstated payrolls, and demand destruction from the energy shock rather than persistent inflation, the market is underpricing the probability of aggressive Fed easing. The trade is a bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures to capture a reversal in the future policy rate path, targeting a move to higher prices as rates are cut more than expected.
Gold rally if China resolves crisis
If China successfully intervenes to resolve the Hormuz crisis, the bottom for gold is likely already in. The prior negative correlation with oil is abating, and gold is set for a substantial rally from current levels. This is a conditional bullish setup depending on a diplomatic resolution.
Copper bullish breakout to 7
Copper has broken out to all-time new highs and the technical setup suggests continuation. Pullbacks are shallow and well-contained, and the measured move target is $7. The bullish trend is intact with no immediate reversal catalysts, so copper should trade higher.
Далее
This Macro Voices video, published May 14, 2026, features Rory Johnston, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing WTI, SOFR, GLD, COPPER. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Rory Johnston, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: WTI, SOFR, GLD, COPPER