Bloomberg Surveillance 7/30/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 30 июля 2026, 15:36 | 2:24:16 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Greg Moskowitz — Аналитик, Mizuho

Max Kettner — Главный стратег по мультиактивным портфелям, HSBC

Paul Sankey — Ведущий аналитик, Sankey Research

Nick Jones — Analyst, BNP Paribas

Walter Piecyk — Главный экономист, Evercore ISI

Barbara Reinhard — Chief Investment Officer, Voya Investment Management

Vonnie Quinn — Ведущий, Bloomberg

Yahaira Jacquez — Видеожурналист, Reuters

Norman Roule — Former Senior U.S. Intelligence Official, CSIS

Matt Miskin — Portfolio Manager, Manulife John Hancock

The program covers the Federal Reserve's hold with three dissents under Chair Kevin Warsh, fueling a bond market selloff and credibility concerns. Geopolitical tensions escalate with U.S. strikes on Iran and attacks spreading to Egypt, lifting oil and refined products. Tech earnings show stark divergence: Microsoft's Azure cloud accelerates, while Meta disappoints on revenue and free cash flow. Upcoming Apple and Amazon results are previewed amid capex scrutiny. - Fed holds rates steady, three hawkish dissents challenge Chair Warsh's communication - 30-year Treasury yield surges to highest since 2007, yield curve steepens sharply - Markets question Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, dollar weakens - Oil prices elevated as U.S. strikes Iran, conflict spreads to Egyptian waters - Microsoft Azure growth re-accelerates, stock rallies; Meta punished for weak free cash flow and indecisive capex plans - Analyst calls: bullish on refined products, WTI crude post-SPR draw, overweight Europe/Japan equities - Apple shares seen as riskier due to reliance on iPhone upgrade cycle and lack of AI spending - Consumer companies beat earnings but GDP misses, raising questions about economic momentum

Идеи

Barbara Reinhard Chief Investment Officer, Voya Investment Management 6:50

Tech stocks face supply and cash burn headwinds

Tech trade faces headwinds from hyperscalers burning through cash flow, massive equity supply with net equity issuance for the first time since 2000, buybacks and mergers not offsetting, which will weigh on tech stocks.

Greg Moskowitz Аналитик, Mizuho 33:40

Microsoft Azure re-accelerating strongly

Microsoft Azure revenue growth re-accelerated to 43% year-over-year, beating expectations and guiding for 45% next quarter, demonstrating strong cloud momentum and competitive positioning, dispelling doubts about losing mojo. Accounting change for capex does not alter actual spending plans.

Max Kettner Главный стратег по мультиактивным портфелям, HSBC 57:33

Overweight Europe and Japan equities

Broadening trade not over, global earnings recovery broad-based, Europe and Japan equities at all-time highs and still attractive, not yet time to rotate back into tech/semis; overweight Europe and Japan.

Paul Sankey Ведущий аналитик, Sankey Research 66:05

Refined product margins massive

Refining system extremely tight with refiners at 96% utilization, product margins massive (gasoline $140/bbl vs Brent $90), gasoline inventories at bottom of range, real oil crisis is in refined products not crude.

Paul Sankey Ведущий аналитик, Sankey Research 67:12

WTI crude bullish post-SPR draw

SPR drawdown ending around September will massively change WTI market dynamics, making crude very bullish as a turning point for U.S. oil.

Nick Jones Analyst, BNP Paribas 81:34

META still has significant upside

META's AI spending strategy makes sense given profitable distribution through applications, though near-term free cash flow negative and capex high; stock still has significant upside, price target lowered but long-term bullish.

Walter Piecyk Главный экономист, Evercore ISI 115:46

Apple shares getting riskier

Apple's stock rally driven by lack of AI capex (safety trade) rather than fundamentals; iPhone upgrade cycle may not sustain, China growth a large contributor but could fade, component price increases may pressure margins or unit demand, making shares riskier.