Welcome to the Steroid Era | WAYT?
Спикеры
Spencer Jakab
— Columnist, The Wall Street Journal
Josh Brown
— Генеральный директор, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick
— Управляющий партнер, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Spencer Jakab argues S&P 500 earnings are on steroids, inflated by accounting boosts from AI investment and private stake revaluations, making the market overvalued. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick highlight a powerful broad market breakout across transports, regional banks, and small caps, while calling the Magnificent Seven the worst trade of the year. They dissect the unraveling of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, warn of rampant hidden leverage in ETFs, and Josh makes bullish cases for AI semiconductors, Toast, and a washed-out Nike.
- S&P 500 net margins hit a record 14.8%, temporarily inflated by slow depreciation of AI chips and revaluation of private AI company stakes.
- The bull market is broadening, with equal-weight S&P, transports, regional banks, and small caps hitting all-time highs.
- Magnificent Seven are underperforming as capital rotates to the broader market, making them the worst trade this year.
- MicroStrategy's thesis breaks down; it must sell Bitcoin to support its preferred stock dividends, losing its levered Bitcoin appeal.
- Leveraged ETF volumes and notional values have surged, introducing hidden speculative leverage not captured by traditional margin data.
- The AI semiconductor cycle is historically unique, with Micron guiding to record revenue and margins, validating a 'different this time' thesis.
- Toast's installed restaurant base and AI product position it as an AI beneficiary, not a casualty, as the stock breaks a long downtrend.
- Nike stock is judged washed out after a massive drawdown, offering a potential buying opportunity for a turnaround.
Идеи
S&P 500 margins unsustainably high.
S&P 500 profit margins are at a record 14.8%, about twice the post-war average, and earnings are artificially boosted by slow depreciation of AI chips and revaluation write-ups of private AI stakes. This creates an illusion of rapid earnings growth and makes the market look less expensive than it really is. Mean reversion in margins could lead to a significant stock market decline.
Nike washed out, buy for recovery.
Nike stock is down 73% from highs and sentiment cannot get worse. The bad earnings report was expected and priced in, and the stock is washed out. This creates a buying opportunity for a turnaround.
Mag 7 underperforming, worst trade this year.
The Magnificent Seven are the worst trade of the year, with every other quadrant of the market from small value to midcap growth outperforming them. As the rally broadens, money is rotating away from the mega-cap tech leaders.
Small caps at all-time highs, bullish.
Small caps are breaking out to all-time highs, ratifying the broadening of the bull market and providing a strong bullish signal.
Regional banks hitting all-time highs.
Regional banks are breaking out to all-time highs, joining the broad market's bullish signal and indicating underlying economic strength.
Transports breaking out, confirming bullish signal.
Transports, including airlines and trucking companies, are breaking out to all-time highs, confirming the durability of the rally as economically sensitive sectors participate.
MicroStrategy broken thesis, avoid stock.
MicroStrategy's three-lever strategy of selling stock, never selling Bitcoin, and issuing preferreds has unraveled. The company is now selling Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends, inverting the original thesis. It is no longer a clean levered Bitcoin play, and the financial engineering has become a risk for ordinary shareholders.
AI semiconductor cycle is uniquely profitable.
The AI semiconductor cycle is 'massively different this time,' not just another commodity boom. Companies like Micron are guiding to unprecedented revenue and margins (e.g., $50B quarterly at 86% gross margins). Missing the upside of this historic upcycle is a bigger risk than the eventual downturn.
Toast AI beneficiary in restaurant industry.
Toast is not a software company that will be disrupted by AI; it will be an AI beneficiary. Its installed hardware in restaurants and Toast IQ product put it in pole position to deliver AI-driven hospitality solutions. The stock is breaking a year-long downtrend on good volume with RSI confirmation.
Далее
This The Compound News video, published June 30, 2026, features Spencer Jakab, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick discussing SPY, NKE, MAGS, IWM, KRE, IYT, MSTR, SMH, MU, TOST. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Spencer Jakab, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Tickers: SPY, NKE, MAGS, IWM, KRE, IYT, MSTR, SMH, MU, TOST