LIVE: Saylor Is In TROUBLE.. Leopold Buying MICROCAPS!? Stablecoins Are Back.. Trenches Are INSANE!!
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy covers the nerfing of Claude Sonnet 5 and its implications for AI compute spending, then shifts to gambling psychology and sports betting dynamics. He provides actionable trade ideas on Shaw, IBM, and Hyperliquid, while warning on Circle and MicroStrategy. He also explores the AI music disruption theme and stablecoin market stagnation.
- Claude Sonnet 5 is deliberately nerfed, breaking the 'more compute equals better models' thesis.
- Stablecoin market cap has flatlined, indicating no new money flowing onchain.
- Long Shaw: Leopold Ashenbrenner's 19.9% stake de-risks execution and fuels a short squeeze.
- Long IBM: US quantum push provides a low-risk, high-reward layup trade.
- Long HYPE: Hyperliquid's token is outperforming independently of Bitcoin's weakness.
- Short Circle: Competitive stablecoin launches from Visa/Stripe and Coinbase destroy Circle's moat.
- Avoid MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Saylor's Bitcoin hedge fund is an unsustainable debt trap.
- AI music threat to labels recognized but not yet tradeable; sports betting dynamics discussed.
Ideas
Leopold's 19.9% stake de-risks Shaw.
Leopold Ashenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund filed a 19.9% stake in Shaw (Shaw Communications / Sharon AI), a heavily shorted Australian Neocloud. The stake is the maximum before triggering onerous accounting and gives him board leverage. The company now has $1.6B in cash plus a $500M debt facility, making its GPU buildout financially realistic. Leopold’s track record and reputation drastically reduce execution risk and reputational taint from past Nvidia partnership controversy, setting up a short squeeze. Entry at $89 with stop below 76, targeting $125.
Circle lost moat, short forever.
Circle is in big trouble. It pays Coinbase half its revenue for distribution, and Coinbase is now competing with its own stablecoin. Visa, Stripe, and major banks are launching OpenUSD, eroding Circle's first-mover advantage. Circle's revenue splits are horrible, and it has no moat now that multiple investable stablecoins exist. It will never make a new all-time high and is likely a short into oblivion. A profitable short was already executed on the Visa/Stripe announcement.
Bitcoin weak, not touching it.
Bitcoin is getting crushed and looks terrible. Stablecoin market cap has been flat since October 2025, signaling no new money entering onchain. Without new inflows, sustained crypto activity is unlikely. The speaker is not touching BTC and sees no reason to be bullish after Saylor's latest announcements.
Hype outperforms regardless of Bitcoin.
Hyperliquid's HYPE token is showing strong price action and looks great technically. Bitcoin's underperformance should not stop HYPE's outperformance because onchain activity can diverge. The setup looks so good that a leveraged long position is already open. HYPE is attracting flows independently of BTC's weakness.
US quantum push makes IBM a layup.
IBM is benefiting from a strong US quantum computing push, which was a clear catalyst. The trade was entered on a 'quantum day' as a layup, with a 3:1 reward-to-risk setup. The stock is boring but does not trade much volume, and the US government's focus on quantum makes the upside compelling. Holding with a target around $180 from an entry near $158.
Strategy set up for failure, avoid.
MicroStrategy (Strategy) has rebranded as a Bitcoin hedge fund but is set up for failure. It starts $15 billion in the hole, has shown pitiful ability to time entries and exits, and there are fewer than 10 hedge funds globally that can manage $50B+ AUM. Its only tradable asset is Bitcoin, which is underperforming, and it owes $1.7B annually in perpetuity on a preferred stock dividend that can only be paused, not stopped. Saylor has created a crater hole in Bitcoin and the company cannot escape its debt spiral.
Up Next
This Thread Guy video, published June 30, 2026, features Thread Guy discussing SHAW, USDC, BTC, HYPE, IBM, MSTR. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Thread Guy · Tickers: SHAW, USDC, BTC, HYPE, IBM, MSTR