CH CHF Swiss Franc Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

Fiscal dominance will weaken the US dollar.

Use the Swiss franc for carry trades.

Short CHF, HKD, and JPY for carry.

Speaker notes that traditional safe-havens like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc "have not been performing particularly well since the war began," citing fears of intervention for CHF and market anxiety about the JPY. Local central bank policies or intervention threats (Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan) are suppressing these currencies' typical safe-haven appreciation, making them less effective hedges compared to the USD. AVOID as safe-haven plays because their appreciation potential is capped by domestic policy concerns, making them inferior to the USD in the current crisis. A policy shift by the BOJ or SNB that removes the suppression and allows these currencies to reflect pure risk-off flows.

The Swiss National Bank is explicitly signaling its intent to sell the Swiss Franc to prevent.

A deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East could trigger a flight to safety.

The SNB has explicitly signaled its policy intention to intervene and weaken its currency.

The Swiss National Bank is verbally intervening against excessive CHF strength.

The SNB is expected to prioritize stability over fighting inflation by holding rates.

Strategist stated, "the Swiss franc is going to be the best performing currency in Europe. Full stop." In a risk-averse environment with a major energy-induced terms-of-trade shock, the CHF benefits as a traditional safe-haven. The SNB may have a higher tolerance for franc strength now as it helps limit imported inflation from higher energy prices. The combination of safe-haven flows and a potentially less interventionist SNB supports further CHF appreciation against European peers. The SNB surprises markets with aggressive intervention to weaken the franc, or a rapid resolution to the geopolitical crisis triggers a broad risk-on rally.

DOLLAR RISES 0.64% AGAINST THE SWISS FRANC TO 0.7807.

Swiss National Bank's willingness to intervene has risen.

The Swiss National Bank has explicitly signaled its readiness to intervene.

The Swiss franc is poised to weaken as its recent rally is showing signs of exhaustion based.

The Swiss National Bank is explicitly signaling its readiness to intervene.

The SNB has directly stated its increased preparedness to intervene.

Amidst the chaos of the attacks, Tom Keene explicitly states, "When in doubt, follow the Swiss Franc. That will be the meter here." In times of geopolitical crisis involving nuclear powers and major oil chokepoints, capital flees risk assets and moves to traditional safe havens. The Swiss Franc and Gold are the primary beneficiaries of this fear trade. LONG Safe Havens (CHF, Gold, USD, Treasuries). If the conflict is contained quickly, the risk premium will evaporate, reversing these trades.

A statement from the Swiss National Bank's chairman acknowledging the possibility of deflation.

Morgan Stanley strategists are bullish on the Swiss franc.

Despite a record-weak US allergy season, Zyrtec gained household penetration and share. This points to share gains coming from competitors, not category growth, putting pressure on rival allergy brands. — Zyrtec's share and penetration gains during a weak tide indicate it is taking share from competitors, signaling a negative trend for competing allergy franchises in the US.