EVERYTHING IS BETTER IN ASIA (Guest: Vincent Deluard)

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 16, 2026 at 06:53 | 2:22:33 | The Market Huddle

Speakers

vincentdeluard — StoneX

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Kevin Muir — Host, MacroVoices

Summary

Vincent Deluard discusses his recent trip to Japan and shares his macroeconomic views, highlighting the stark contrast between Japan's economic recovery and Europe's structural decline. The hosts then analyze recent market action, including the S&P 500's resilience, the bursting of the semiconductor bubble, and technical setups across commodities and bonds.

Japan's weak yen policy has successfully revitalized its manufacturing and tourism sectors.
Europe faces severe fiscal and political risks, making the Euro and French bonds vulnerable.
The US fiscal impulse is fading, raising risks for the highly concentrated US equity market.
Latin American equities are positioned to benefit from commodity strength and pro-market politics.
Semiconductors and the KOSPI index show technical signs of a bursting bubble similar to 2000.
Agricultural commodities are experiencing technical breakouts across the board.
Gold remains in a strong structural bull market supported by central bank accumulation.

Ideas

vincentdeluard StoneX 4:20

Shrinking rate differentials and repatriation support the yen.

The secular depreciation of the Japanese yen is ending as rate differentials shrink, the Bank of Japan has room to hike rates, and Japanese pension funds begin repatriating foreign assets.

vincentdeluard StoneX 28:00

Short French bonds against German Bunds.

France faces a severe fiscal deficit and rising political risk from populist extremes, making French government bonds unattractive relative to German Bunds.

vincentdeluard StoneX 28:00

Short French bonds against German Bunds.

France faces a severe fiscal deficit and rising political risk from populist extremes, making French government bonds unattractive relative to German Bunds.

vincentdeluard StoneX 29:20

Short the Euro against the Japanese Yen.

Europe is facing severe structural issues, high energy costs, and political instability, while Japan is recovering. The Euro needs to depreciate significantly to save the European economy.

vincentdeluard StoneX 31:00

US equity market is overvalued as stimulus fades.

The S&P 500 has broken out bullishly and established price acceptance at higher levels, giving bulls control and setting up a potential rising wedge formation with trips to higher prices.

vincentdeluard StoneX 47:00

LATAM equities benefit from commodities and pro-market politics.

Latin American equities benefit from a positive competitive shock from cheap Chinese imports, strong commodity exposure, and a wave of pro-market political shifts.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 74:10

Semiconductors and KOSPI are in a bursting bubble.

The semiconductor sector and the KOSPI index are exhibiting bubble-bursting price action similar to the 2000 dot-com crash, with a sharp initial drop and a likely dead-cat bounce before further declines.

Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 98:20

Economic weakness will support SOFR futures.

The US economy is precariously perched and likely to roll over, which will prevent further rate hikes and support higher prices for SOFR futures.

Kevin Muir Host, MacroVoices 109:50

Crowded short positioning could trigger a bond squeeze.

The US 30-year bond is a highly crowded short trade among CTAs, which sets up the potential for a violent short squeeze, despite ongoing issuance from hyperscalers.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 119:30

Short USD/JPY if it holds below 160.

If USD/JPY holds below the 160 level and rolls over after retracing 50% of its recent drop, it presents a tactical short opportunity.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 120:15

Oil has established a higher fair value zone.

Crude oil has found a new higher fair value zone between $80 and $90 due to a tight market and constrained supply, which is supportive for energy stocks.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 128:30

Gold's 50% retracement offers a long-term buying opportunity.

Gold has retraced 50% of its massive two-year rally, providing a strong long-term entry point, though short-term shakeouts are possible before the next leg higher.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 136:30

Agricultural commodities are breaking out technically.

Agricultural commodities and softs, including wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, sugar, and coffee, are showing technical breakouts that could signal a new bull market.

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This The Market Huddle video, published August 16, 2026, features vincentdeluard, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir discussing JPY, OAT, BNDX, EUR/JPY, SPY, LATAM Equities, EWZ, SMH, EWY, SOFR futures, US30Y, USD/JPY, WTI, XLE, GLD, WEAT, COCOA, CORN, KC, CANE, SOYB. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: vincentdeluard, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir · Tickers: JPY, OAT, BNDX, EUR/JPY, SPY, LATAM Equities, EWZ, SMH, EWY, SOFR futures, US30Y, USD/JPY, WTI, XLE, GLD, WEAT, COCOA, CORN, KC, CANE, SOYB