Calls
22
#382
Alpha Score 62.3
Max Kettner
Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC
Win Rate
52.4%
return
+0.6%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 16
$702.70
+5.8%
The S&P 500's earnings outlook is not significantly threatened by the Middle East conflict because the tech sector, which drives earnings, is almost 50% of market cap, and consumer cyclicals are a small part. The initial 20% multiple compression was irrational, and the current rally is justified by strong tech and AI demand, with relative tech valuations at attractive levels.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 13
$87.84
+1.8%
Tax reimbursements are hitting US households in February and April. Data shows the "lower end of the K-shaped economy" is ramping up consumption. This liquidity injection specifically benefits mass-market retail, homebuilders, and transport sectors. Rotate into cyclical consumer sectors that benefit from lower-income spending power. Persistent inflation eroding the real value of tax refunds.
Tax reimbursements are hitting US households in February and April. Data shows the "lower end of the K-shaped economy" is ramping up consumption. This liquidity injection specifically benefits mass-market retail, homebuilders, and transport sectors. Rotate into cyclical consumer sectors that benefit from lower-income spending power. Persistent inflation eroding the real value of tax refunds.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 19
$70.99
+8.0%
Systematic positioning (CTAs/Risk Parity) has dropped from the 80th percentile to below the 50th percentile, meaning "short-term hedging demand is much higher" and positioning is clean. The recent sell-off/rotation has cleared out the "froth," meaning the downside risk from here is constrained. Kettner specifically points to cyclical sectors benefiting from tax refunds and stimulus, explicitly naming Regional Banks and Transport. LONG Cyclicals (Regional Banks, Transports, Retail) as positioning is washed out. A resurgence of inflation forces the Fed to actually hike, crushing cyclical recovery hopes.
Systematic positioning (CTAs/Risk Parity) has dropped from the 80th percentile to below the 50th percentile, meaning "short-term hedging demand is much higher" and positioning is clean. The recent sell-off/rotation has cleared out the "froth," meaning the downside risk from here is constrained. Kettner specifically points to cyclical sectors benefiting from tax refunds and stimulus, explicitly naming Regional Banks and Transport. LONG Cyclicals (Regional Banks, Transports, Retail) as positioning is washed out. A resurgence of inflation forces the Fed to actually hike, crushing cyclical recovery hopes.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 13
$114.26
+19.1%
Mag-7 stocks are trading at ~26.5x forward earnings, comparable to the Russell 2000 at ~24x. Valuation compression has occurred because prices stayed flat while earnings grew. The "fear trade" provides a buying opportunity in high-quality growth at reasonable valuations compared to historical premiums. Buy the dip in Big Tech; valuations are no longer stretched relative to the broader market. Regulatory headwinds or a hotter-than-expected CPI print.
Mag-7 stocks are trading at ~26.5x forward earnings, comparable to the Russell 2000 at ~24x. Valuation compression has occurred because prices stayed flat while earnings grew. The "fear trade" provides a buying opportunity in high-quality growth at reasonable valuations compared to historical premiums. Buy the dip in Big Tech; valuations are no longer stretched relative to the broader market. Regulatory headwinds or a hotter-than-expected CPI print.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 24
$38.70
+3.7%
European banks have been overlooked, earnings revisions are holding up, steepening bund curve boosts them, and the worst case was merely in-line performance. Lower oil and re-acceleration narrative aid further outperformance.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 13
$113.57
-14.3%
Tax reimbursements are hitting US households in February and April. Data shows the "lower end of the K-shaped economy" is ramping up consumption. This liquidity injection specifically benefits mass-market retail, homebuilders, and transport sectors. Rotate into cyclical consumer sectors that benefit from lower-income spending power. Persistent inflation eroding the real value of tax refunds.
Tax reimbursements are hitting US households in February and April. Data shows the "lower end of the K-shaped economy" is ramping up consumption. This liquidity injection specifically benefits mass-market retail, homebuilders, and transport sectors. Rotate into cyclical consumer sectors that benefit from lower-income spending power. Persistent inflation eroding the real value of tax refunds.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jul 09
$68.19
-0.3%
Eurozone equities are attractive because earnings expectations are much lower compared to the US, the recent euro weakness and stronger dollar support relative earnings, and overall growth expectations are low, providing a low bar to beat. European banks are particularly compelling: even a tiny steepening was enough to turn flat earnings estimates into outperformance, making valuations attractive.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jul 06
$722.53
-3.8%
Equity offerings from hyperscalers are not a concern for dilution or froth. Dollar amounts look large relative to total market cap but are manageable versus free float. Current IPO and equity offering volumes are comparable to 2020, not the frothy 2021 peak. The 2020-2021 period was far more exuberant, with SPACs and blind capital raises, and today's AI-driven margins (e.g., Micron) do not signal a bubble.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 24
$113.76
+1.5%
Broadening trade in the US equity market should continue, with consumer stocks likely beneficiaries as the rotation within US equities persists.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 12
$92.40
-
Prefer US and Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Korea) equities over Europe because the US and Asia have multiple domestic and structural growth drivers (AI, tech, fiscal stories) while Europe’s fate is overly tied to a single geopolitical factor (Iran conflict resolution).
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 12
$102.62
-5.2%
Prefer US and Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Korea) equities over Europe because the US and Asia have multiple domestic and structural growth drivers (AI, tech, fiscal stories) while Europe’s fate is overly tied to a single geopolitical factor (Iran conflict resolution).
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 12
$196.14
-17.1%
Prefer US and Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Korea) equities over Europe because the US and Asia have multiple domestic and structural growth drivers (AI, tech, fiscal stories) while Europe’s fate is overly tied to a single geopolitical factor (Iran conflict resolution).
Equity Indexes
Long
May 29
$103.38
+4.7%
As the Middle East situation resolves, rate-sensitive cyclical sectors like regional banks, retail, and homebuilders are likely to participate in the next leg of the rally because positioning is subdued, earnings are broad-based, and the U.S. cyclicality is more insulated from Middle East disruptions than previously thought.
Thematic ETFs
Long
May 13
$113.74
-3.5%
US and Asian equities are attractive because earnings season has been exceptionally strong with broad-based beats, positioning is not frothy (systematic and discretionary far from sell signals), and the AI theme provides a tailwind. Europe lacks AI exposure and needs resolution of the Middle East conflict to become investable, so skip Europe and focus on US and Asia.
Equity Indexes
Long
May 06
$115.46
-5.0%
Emerging Asia equities offer a dual tailwind: positive geopolitical news from the Middle East and strong earnings momentum in tech/AI/semiconductors. Positioning is still below neutral, leaving room for further upside.
Equity Indexes
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Max Kettner has 22 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 22 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 52% across 21 evaluated calls, average return +0.6%. Ranked #382 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, XRT, KRE.
